Chapter 1: Post-Y2K analysis;
why the computer threat turned out to be a non-event. A success in prophetic
In the preparatory stage,
before being awakened as Daniel, the author had spent a few thousand
hours thinking, studying and writing about the potential disaster resulting
from the computer bug called Y2K, and how it threatened the economy
and other infrastructure issues. This was the case for 18 solid months
on the newfound medium called the Internet. I was doing
so without the expectation I was soon to become an angel and the return
of Daniel. This awakening occurred a little more than two
months prior to the Y2K rollover, and was Daniel's first unconscious
mission. This Section begins with this short history of Y2K coverage
prior to Y2K, as includes much economic and strategic analysis which
followed, based on divine dreams Daniel has received. The following
is an article written a few days after, in January 2000, and explains
the reason the situation turned out the way it did. I've decided to
leave it relatively untouched, so here it is for the record:
"Confidence comes from
not always being right but from not fearing to be wrong" Peter
"We credit scarcely any
person with good sense except those who are of our opinion" la
of being wise is knowing what to overlook" William James
"It's a rash man who reaches
a conclusion before he gets to it" Jacob Levin
"We owe a debt of thanks
to the people who sounded the early alarms on Y2K. Had there been no
alarmists, the Y2K disaster would have been huge, because just 24 months
ago there was widespread ignorance and denial of the problem."
John Koskinen, Y2K Czar (1/2/2000)
It was an absolutely
pleasant surprise to arrive on the other side of the millennium not
only unscathed, but to experience the utter joy and satisfaction of
the worldwide celebrations that seemed to pull all of humanity into
a unified sense of collective euphoria! Even the weather was perfect!
To witness this once-in-a-lifetime event come to pass in such a positive
manner is quite inspirational, to say the least.
Through such collective will to rise to the occasion and demolish the
Y2K computer bug, as was the case over the past months and years prior
to the rollover, we as a human race demonstrated once again that through
working together toward a unified goal, essentially, for the most part,
we eradicated a serious, universal, technological threat
-- a threat that, had it not been identified and tackled
in a timely manner and with full vigor, would surely
have meant disaster.
Clearly the alarm bells -- rung loud, hard and persistently by Y2K
alarmists and activists -- were definitely heeded by those in authority,
business, management, and government. Sufficient action and attention
was taken on all sides, around the world, to avert what
was a very real threat to our modern, technologically advanced civilization.
It bring the author intense joy -- not disappointment -- that the worst
of the dire assessments and expectations about Y2K made
on the site and by other prominent Y2K experts since 1997 were wrong
in the proverbial end -- defeated and disabled. In fact,
the rollover was such a non-event even the ultra-optimists were confounded
and surprised; it seems illogical this was the outcome, given the consensus
among those "in the know", but I share in their
The reader may think the author to be licking my wounds, feeling
ashamed, stupid and silly ... because Daniel was "wrong"?
Absolutely not! ... for reasons shown below. This issue
is exactly something I fully expected, and hoped for; some e-mails I
received shortly after January 1 (the type one would expect): personal
attacks based on misunderstood perceptions. A general response follows.
These were received the day of the rollover:
"Glad you were wrong and
I know you are too!" Robert
"I'm thinking you've got
to feel pretty silly about now ..." Anon
"Well Dan, I suppose that
you and the other Y2K doomsday gurus are feeling a little silly right
about now, so I won't rub your nose in it too much, but I can't resist
just a little. Jan 1 has come and gone, and far from a collapse of the
global computer network, riots and mayhem in U.S. cities, and nuclear
plant meltdowns, as you and your friends predicted [Author's note: I
have never predicted these things. Just raised these possibilities and
issued warnings], there has not been even 1, count 'em ONE significant
failure! One question, what are you going to do with all those dry goods,
generators, and cabins in the wilderness?. Hard things to sell right
now, as there is sure to be a market glut of them! HAH HAH!!"
"Totally overreacted and
jumped the gun about this issue. Media hype has fooled us all, we are
still here and the world HAS NOT ended. I admit that I thought something
bad was going to happen, but guess what? WE ARE ALL OK! The world has
not ended! [Again, never said it would be the end of the world.] The
Y2K hoax was created by capitalist corporations to fool people into
buying water, extra food, generators and by extremist Christians who
actually wanted something bad to happen, such as the fool Gary North.
Next time we should stop being so gullible" ...
"I'll bet you feel like
an absolute idiot today! You sure did waste your time by making this
website! It's just another day here in the world! Have a Happy New Year!!!"
Surely it was far less damaging
than previously anticipated, and this was cause for relief.
As mentioned in a September newsletter, the majority
of bugs were to pile up and turn up in strange and wonderful
ways well into 2000. I also downplayed the significance of the rollover.
[I said in December, 1999] "Will it be enough to significantly
and severely disrupt the economy? I no longer believe so; at least not
to the degree thought in days gone by. Does this mean the current boom
will continue forever and ever? NO!" Before we get too giddy: the
general, long-range thesis of the site and book remains certain, intact
and trustworthy and has been so since first written,
and Y2K was merely one variable of concern -- humanly alterable and
with many unknowns. What is this long-range thesis? As
mentioned in the September 28, 1999 newsletter (notice
this has nothing to do with Y2K):
"...I wish the party
could go on forever, but history tells us it must not, and the hangover
is upon us. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a catastrophic
bust in the months/years ahead. A bust that, like the unprecedented
nature of the current boom, will be equally unprecedented in its devastation
"... It may surprise some of you to know that I
am substantially more optimistic (on the Y2K portion) than was the case
one year ago. Believe it or not, I tend to (partly) agree with Peter
De Jager that we (at least in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Australia)
have accomplished enough Y2K repairs and are now making contingency
plans across the board to avert a total collapse--i.e. The End Of The
World As We Know It ..."
"... Many seem to think that merely because I bring
up the possibility of a societal/civilizational collapse that I'm also
predicting such an event. Well, I'm not! Nor am I predicting
a permanent or long-term power-grid shut-down or full-scale nuclear
launch on January 1, 2000 ..."
"I AM predicting we will have to experience a (several-year) period
of severe economic tribulation that will fundamentally alter the world's
economic structure from which a new strategic paradigm will emerge:
a full, total global war in the next twenty years that will be fought
with maximum effort, nuclear weapons will be used, and the America/China/India/Russian
"problem" will be resolved ... but only after
a culmination of unforeseeable events climax into World War Three in
which either a new global power for the next long cycle is determined,
or re-appointed (that is, the U.S.A.) ... "
[I do not wish this to occur, but know it must.]
Also said in the December 6, 1999 update was:
"Furthermore, we need to get away from the concept that whatever
Y2K effects that are to happen will happen "on Jan, 1, 2000."
Actually, only a small percentage will take place then, and they won't
all be of catastrophic nature either. This is not an all-or-nothing,
either/or situation. Most of the failures, in terms of volume,
will be throughout 2000, showing up in strange and wonderful ways."
"Again, January 1, 2000 is NOT going to be the end of the world,
and nor has the author ever implied such a scenario ..."
I also said at the time, "It appears that
the market will remain adrift until early January 2000 -- save for a
final-week panic from Y2K preparation -- when it is guaranteed
to begin the long road into the abyss. Bear markets rarely start in
this time frame (January) but when they do happen they're of very large
consequence, as was the case in 1974." Well, mid-January 2000 was
the ultimate peak in the market.
Since the above people seem so intent on pointing out how "wrong"
I was about Y2K here comes a rebuttal:
I do have a decent track record of successes in predicting the economy,
even prior to Y2K and the angelic awakening, where ALL visions of a
short-term fashion have come true by 100% as shown since 1999. Obviously
there is no way for you to verify any thing prior to a year and a half
or two ago, where everything was written in stone on the Listbot archives,
so you will have to take my word for it previous to 1999 (then again
you don't) ... but yes. In the late 1980's as a teen-ager, I
predicted the long drawn-out recession we experienced in the early 1990's
(but I was slightly off in its intensity -- remember, this was a "prediction,"
not "word from God"). I then "predicted" in early
1995 that the economy would boom with a climbing stock market. Late
1997 was when I changed my tune and became extremely bearish about the
long term. Long-time readers since early 1998 will have
noticed that I successfully predicted the September/October crash we
had in the fall of 1998 and that we would hit Dow 10,000. I correctly
called the correction of last September/October 1999
(but off in intensity -- expected a crash). [Then immediately
after the awakening as Daniel, everything based on divine visions HAS
been coming true -- everything, 100%.]
Predicting good news makes you popular -- especially when it comes
true! Predicting bad news is a thankless job; one is
criticized and written off while sounding the alarm, then blamed for
it and resented when it comes true OR false, as was the case about Y2K.
So then why were we all "wrong about Y2K?" Why was Y2K a
virtual non-event? Why was there no pre-Y2K crash?
Continue reading. First and foremost let it be known that the great
majority of this site was written in a time period when Y2K was still
not being taken seriously, awareness was low and insufficient remediation
efforts were almost universal. That is, early 1998 to early 1999. Save
for a few updates in the archive section, the site was essentially not
modified at all, including the main homepage; the wording and assessments
were nearly the same as first written in spring/summer of 1998 and simply
added to. My assessment had changed dramatically since then, but I
failed to modify the writings to reflect this until after 2000, after
the awakening, as the time required to do so was unavailable.
Hard data on true Y2K status and progress was seemingly nonexistent
at the time, and therefore in attempting to form an assessment
on the magnitude and outcome of Y2K, we had to assume the worst --
not the best. Or, in other words, organizations and entities in question
were guilty until proven innocent. We had to use whatever information
and evidence came our way and err on the side of caution.
This was done not as "prophecy" but for valid risk assessment
as Y2K was a humanly alterable event.
The Macro-economic Thesis on the site, first written in April 1998,
remains fundamentally sound, logical in its methodology and the conclusions
reached therein would surely have come to pass ... had
Y2K come in 1998. However, the variables and inputs to the grand equation
had since changed dramatically.
The first portion significantly altered over time was the greatly increased
efforts, attention and resources made over the two years prior to 2000.
Y2K budgets rose substantially in the right places reflecting increased
concern in corporate and government agencies. The $500 billion thus
far spent worldwide was not misspent or wasted on a "hoax."
Corporations do not naively, frantically spend hundreds of millions
of dollars each of precious money with great urgency on a trivial, non-threatening
problem. There was a good reason why governments around the world built
$60 million command centers (bunkers) and mobilized for martial law.
"Martial law?" Yes, don't you remember? Here is a quote from
a Canadian newspaper,
"Prime Minister Jean Chretien's government will be on full Y2K
alert New Year's Eve and ready to invoke an updated War Measures Act
if needed, sources have told the Sun."
"The Emergencies Act, which was passed in 1988, gives cabinet
sweeping powers to issue whatever orders or regulations it believes
are necessary to deal with emergencies such as major power outages caused
by computer glitches or civil insurrections, major riots and prison
And the title of this report from World Net Daily entitled: "Clinton
set to declare national emergency. More than 50 simultaneous Y2K crises
expected, stretching resources to limit." That says
"... It was not a hoax, and tens of thousands have
given everything to fix the problem, many sacrificing their careers,
to remediate the antiques, instead of mastering the new technologies.
All the thousands of Y2K websites will disappear, and the public will
forget those who worked into the night, warning and cajoling businesses
and governments to get off their asses and do something...." Alan
The second factor I erred in not modifying was the relative importance
or triviality of the millennium bug in respect to compliance or non-compliance.
Surely the work completed thus far has been successful in the vast majority
of mission-critical systems. Moreover, a non-compliant apparatus or
system was not nearly as serious as previously thought. In fact, most
glitches are benign, as many computers and chips will function as normal
in non-compliant state; it is the systems that operate
heavily with date calculations that require near 100% compliancy in
software such as government payroll systems (eg.: Social Security Administration),
banking and financial institutions. They correctly perceived it as a
threat to survival, thence took the proper steps and
were generally successful.
The third variable was the severity of faulty
embedded systems (chips). We never really knew the real percentage at
risk or how they would react systemically to the rollover period, and
opinions and estimates varied widely. In making this assessment I had
to again err on the side of caution and presume failures would be significant
and /or widespread and assume the worst. It came to pass, obviously,
being that power and telecommunications--even water and gas--were scarcely
disrupted, that most embedded system problems were either trivial in
nature, or repaired and replaced in time, or on a fix-on-failure basis.
Keep in mind: we were still in a bad-news-blackout where
any technological failures will be blamed on anything other than Y2K,
or not publicized, even when blatantly related. You can
be certain major failures in mainframes or other networks occurred throughout
the rollover period. The propaganda was still operating in full
Through late 1998 to late 1999, I and most other Y2K gurus had failed
to recognize and acknowledge these altered, positive developments; our
minds had still been stuck in the old pessimistic battle of awareness
-- a battle that had already been won, at least in the
technological sense. Instead, we continued to fight a losing battle
for public perception with the (idealistic) hope of shaking up the unaware
public or anyone else who would listen into personal or community preparation.
This was a battle bound to be lost in the big picture, was not part
of The Plan and became futile after February 1999; and most failed to
recognize it, though these warnings still did serve a useful purpose
in keeping people on their toes. The intentions of the skeptics and
alarmists were well placed and productive; our struggle
against what we perceived as an overly optimistic PR campaign failed
because, it turned out, this optimism was well placed, though often
for the wrong reasons. Actually, the general public/ Joe Six-Pack
never really did "get it" and still doesn't.
This was the first major issue to be discussed, argued, assessed, and
debated almost entirely on the newly emerged medium called the Internet.
I believe there are few coincidences in life and worldly affairs. The
Internet, brimming with knowledge, opinions and information
(or misinformation) arrived at precisely the same time knowledge of
the severity and threat of Y2K became robust. This emergence first came
in 1997 when awareness of Y2K spread and grew quite rapidly. Previously
very few comprehended the extent and potential societal implications
and whatever Y2K information was available could easy
be assimilated by one person.
At that time there were only a few precursor Y2K consultants and alarmists
pounding the pavement such as Peter de Jager, Russ Kelly, John Westergaard,
Jim Lord, Ed Yourdon, Ed Yardeni, Senator Bennett -- even John Koskinen
(I've wrongly been harsh on him – sorry, John ...)
among others that accomplished a great deal of awareness (and many made
some ca$h for this as well, but that's not the point). This first stage
of warning and awareness effectively shocked a multitude into much-needed
action in the right places and therefore was beneficial:
"... I am not saying that we would have been better
off if the existence of the Y2K problem had never been publicized. In
that event, the remedial actions that have been expended over the past
two years would surely have fallen short ... the desirability
of publicizing the existence of a pending significant technical breakdown
was never in question -- and never should have been
..." Alan Greenspan September, 1999.
There was also an emergence of one who has probably had the greatest
influence of all on the entire Y2K: Gary North. Gary
is a newsletter author with a doctorate in history and since late 1996
has built a massive 7000 page/link Y2K site, updated almost daily with
a multitude of information, making it the foremost encyclopedia and
database on general Y2K information, admittedly pessimistically biased
and with a somewhat theological agenda.
Gary fought many battles in dealing with adversaries in his rise to
prominence dealing with this highly controversial, complex subject using
much wisdom and debate. It is significantly through the writings of
his site and sites of similar nature (as this one), persistence and
presence that we passed the threshold of the millennium without a hitch.
Had these precursor gurus not been present, ignored or not taken seriously
(and many have wrongly wished they would have been silenced -- or put
to death) the world would have experienced, come late 1999 and 2000,
major breakdowns; a total panic; possibly societal collapse. This is
contrary to the critics' claims that they would cause a panic or self-fulfilling
prophecy. How so?
Reality of prophecy
The most rewarding and satisfactory
prophecy, prediction or future assessment one can make is NOT one that
comes true, but one that is heeded, taken seriously by the right people
in the right places so as to alter the final outcome; one where the
prophet is ultimately wrong, through a self-defeating mechanism. With
the whole Y2K situation this has definitely occurred, though most do
not see this as quite obvious, and therefore have been constantly attacking
the messenger, even after Y2K, for being "wrong."
Historically unprecedented, Y2K was a serious, reality-based, impending
technological problem with a known date which also involved potentially
severe, negative social consequences had insufficient warning been applied.
There are several ways the future can be altered. In respect to Y2K,
the future time-line of events and social behavior was indeed significantly
modified to the positive through active intervention, as the final outcome
When, for example, Y2K awareness and perception of magnitude was dismally
low and still considered a nonsense, fringe subject in early 1998, Daniel
took it upon himself to repeatedly contact Gary North, Ed Yourdon and
Art Bell -- popular night-time radio host with 10 to 20 million open-minded
listeners. (No; there were no ulterior motives for doing this --
they have never met me.) Gary finally made it on for a frightening 4-hour
show in May, 1998. The result of this show and other shows following
(Ed Yourdon finally made it on as well) was profound as millions, including
thousands of influential politicians, corporate managers, authorities,
government agencies and the mainstream media, were shocked into realizing
just how big, complex and serious the Y2K problem really was.
Through this cause-and-effect relationship, mass awareness
and thenceforth preventive action spread, cascaded and
snowballed throughout the English-speaking world; the part of the world
most computer-dense and therefore in need of it.
While the author's site has "only" received
150,000 hits since its inception before 2000, a disproportionate percentage
of readers were of authoritative and influential identity,
including a multitude of senators, among them Robert
Bennett & Chris Dodd, congressmen, business leaders, and
other Y2K gurus and IT managers. So, therefore, my role in creating
and accomplishing a self-defeating prophecy has been significant. Most
of this was done behind the scenes: witness the Art Bell/Gary
North set-up; word spread rapidly. This is not said to be prideful or
boastful as it was simply, I know now (since November 1999), part of
my Job and Mission. Nor do I expect any official credit of recognition;
it is a thankless Job.
One aspect of Y2K taken seriously was social reaction to it,
in particular, the consequence of mass preparation (referred to as "panic"
since only a few would ever have been able to prepare as such simultaneously)
as well as loss of confidence in the financial markets such as the stock
market and (most importantly, the fragility of) the banking system.
No one has beat on the drum of the banking issue more than Gary North.
What we were not privy to was that such pre0.7_B93">ordained,
widespread discussion and awareness of bank runs/panic
had the opposite effect he had wished for; officials intervened in response
through the media with all sorts of bump-in-road proclamations
(even that turned out to be a pessimistic scenario!) and mind
control and effectively psychologically subdued the public from taking
such action. In fact, to further keep the public in greed mode (as opposed
to fear mode) the central banks flooded the system with money; currency
and fiat, expanding an already overinflated
bubble, thereby ensuring a pre-2000 non-crash.
Lesson: The message of the alarmists and activists was heard loud and
clear, taken seriously enough, early enough so as to alter the final
outcome and actual flow of time and course of history
and therefore all of you deserve a great big pat on the back (regardless
of motives). No, you won't get credit where credit is
due, but you will be rewarded.
We have done most of this subconsciously and unconsciously;
we didn't realize it, but you were part of a grand conspiracy called
God's Plan. While it was true many had financial or religious motives
behind such "fear-mongering," the end result was positive,
the way it was supposed to occur. There are
other Agents working behind the scenes as well.
The author's motives were never material. Sure, there
have been ads on this site in the past, but very, very little was actually
made; the ultimate motive, I knew now (since November, 1999, time of
awakening), was divinely inspired. I have made perhaps
$360 from Y2K and my site -- total (that's it!), yet have spent thousands
of hours on it, and with deep contemplation and devotion. In other words,
this site has been charity: to aid in understanding;
to motivate; to speculate into the future; to inform of
what is to come.
Almost from Day One anyone courageous enough to even
suggest Y2K may have negative consequences -- especially in the midst
of a record economic boom where optimism and overconfidence
prevailed, was continually attacked, assaulted and blamed.
A public bad-news blackout was in full force. Greed,
not fear, has been the overriding emotion
of the masses and investors. It is that which contains
the ultimate seeds of the upcoming economic catastrophe.
As such, the longer and stronger the recent and current boom and bubble
continues, the greater the final reckoning.
A Prophet's Error? ...
Both, as shall be explained.
Any Y2K assessments or "predictions" were not "from God,"
but of mortal origin. They were essentially a compilation
and conglomeration of the minds of other Y2K gurus, and humans make
mistakes. The major mistake Daniel had made was to disregard the intuition
I obviously felt and discerned since early 1999. I truly sensed things
had changed for the positive and there really was reason for genuine
optimism. Unfortunately the mental portion of the mind remained in this
stubborn, old awareness battle of 1998, therefore staying
the same path of pessimism and negativity. This was due to the overwhelming
evidence that still seemed to suggest a disaster. My instincts, however,
were screaming otherwise.
This was shown in a dream in full color in July 1999 that I briefly
mentioned to my subscribers. To confirm this one may go to the July
27 1999 update of the newsletter archives (#68 at http://www.listbot.com/archive/collapse).
I had said:
"... I had a weird dream last night. Let's hope
it's prophetic: I dreamt of the Jan 1 Y2K rollover. Nothing happened!
The lights stayed on and there were no noticeable ill effects. I felt
like a moron for storing food and supplies! Too bad it was just a dream."
It was a dream where I was up in a skyscraper overlooking
a major city shortly before the Y2K rollover. In this dream -- seen
in full clarity -- I was full of anxiety in anticipation, looking down
at the brightly lit metropolis, waiting for the power to shut down and
chaos to break loose. To my shock, in this dream, virtually nothing
happened across the country in the following hours! When I awoke I figured
it must have been a nightmare; considering the consensus among most
Y2K gurus that there would almost surely have been major outages and
other problems, this seemed impossible. Become a Pollyanna based on
a dream? Obviously since, I have been more keen in having
faith in these dreams. It was prophetic,
and it was correct!
Shortly after, the author felt in the heart that following and covering
it (negative portion of Y2K) was no longer viable; it seemed senseless
to continue such Y2K doomsaying; hence very few updates on the site
were made since then. Indeed, the author really and truly
did become more optimistic, as there was genuine reason for it! Shortly
after the September 28, 1999 update, the author began
a journey of divine revelation when who and what I was, was
discerned, as briefly mentioned in the December 6, 1999 update, the
first since the awakening. Anyway, what else positive
came of Y2K?
The scare has compelled banks, phone companies, and
manufacturers to make their computerized nervous systems vastly more
efficient and cheaper to run; a focus, discipline and encouragement
to make the changes and upgrades, weeding out aged or superfluous coding
and programs they knew had to be made anyways. Companies will recoup
in the long term any monies spent because they now have
excellent, modern networks, completely tested and working to perfection.
That can only be positive.
We have shaken many people out of their modern-world
slumber, preparing for and thinking about a future disaster, which will
come in very handy when things get rough such as due to
a natural disaster or period of unemployment. People who
prepared should NOT feel silly. In fact, they should continue to prepare
since the coming years WILL be rough, regardless of Y2K.
Governments, agencies and communities now have a cohesive, cooperative
infrastructure and system in place to deal with any natural or man-made
disaster. There are many more, of course, but the point is made.
Chapter 2: First economic forecast
since awakening, early 2000
The following is a remnant
from an economic update made in February, 2000 for the rest of the year,
documented here for the record, exactly as written, and sent out to
subscribers, but still generally holds; read carefully
and note how it came completely true ...
Contemporary New Age/Economy/Era
"We are living in an age
of increasing prosperity and consequent increasing earning power of
corporations and individuals. This is due in large measure to mass production
and inventions such as the world never before has witnessed. The rapidity
with which worthwhile inventions are brought out is the result of the
tremendous research laboratories of our great [technology companies].
Applications of these inventions to business means greatly enhanced
earning power. This is a new and tremendously powerful factor in the
[business] world and one which never before existed."
Just before that paragraph,
the gentleman said,
"Stock prices are not
too high and Wall Street will not experience anything in the nature
of a crash. There may be a decline in stock prices, but not anything
in the nature of a crash."
Who is this economist? The
gentleman who spoke the words quoted above was Professor Irving Fisher
of Yale University, dated September 5,1929, acknowledged at the time
as being a stock market expert. The fact that the Dow was down 47% in
less than ten weeks from the date that quote was published is scary
indeed. History doesn't repeat; only the names and faces
have been changed ...
Based on the Fed's own valuation model the market is presently (as
of Feb. 2000) 60% overvalued! Very recently it approached 70%! If the
Dow is this much overvalued at the current 11,000, this means a crash
of 60% would place it at around 6,800. This would simply be normal valuation.
To the public, investors and the economy this would be a total calamity.
The NASDAQ is the worst: valuations are completely indefensible
by all measures. Earnings, based on unrealistically high expectations,
will not grow forever.
No sane investor would dare look at present valuations and conclude
that this is a healthy market to buy into ... unless
he is a speculator or into shorts and options. Market
capitalization historically averages 50% of GDP. Shortly before the
crash of 1929, an era of extreme speculation, it was a whopping 87%.
What should make any investor paranoid is the fact that it is now 125%
of GDP in the U.S.! To bring it down to a sane level by this measure
means (approx.) Dow 3,300. But in a crash/depression situation it would
temporarily drop to (say) 25% of GDP which would mean a Dow of 1,500.
If a depression occurs where GDP drops 20-30%, then the
Dow, correcting for these numbers, would approach 1,000 or less at the
Price-to-earnings levels are at a range never before
seen. P/E ratios in a normal market typically range from 8-to-one
to 15-to-one. When it hits 21 or 22-to-one, one of two things usually
happens: The price of the market must decline or the
earnings must be raised. The insanity of the current mania is the fact
that it reached a never-before-seen 35-to-one (in the S&P)!
This is only the broad average, of course, and many individual stocks
are in the triple digit range. Many, having no earnings, are at infinity.
It's only a short matter of time before the bubble bursts, and a tremendous
amount of wealth will be lost. [Of course, a tremendous amount of wealth
was lost, and the tech bubble burst dramatically within a couple of
Chapter 3: General outlook
for the year 2000; fulfilled
This was also made around
the time of February, 2000 for the rest of the year, as a general economic
forecast, and mentions the election of Bush, documented here for the
record ...Virtually all of it was indeed fulfilled accurately
The market at this stage is
inherently unstable. At some point something -- no one can ever know
when or quite what -- will trigger a decision by some to get out. Once
the purely speculative component has been built into the structure,
the eventual result is, to repeat, inevitable: a crash. There should
be major declines over the next two months, in March and April, possibly
delayed to May, when a panic crash will most likely occur. The Dow
should definitely close below 10,000 and in a worst-case to a 7,500
level before rebounding back to 10,000-ish. Summer should
be sideways and/or rising, but not to new highs. As was
the case last year, and the year before ... AND the year
before; declining in August and September, then possibly
crashing before or during the elections, probably in October. Bush (or,
most likely Mc Cain?) elected president, and like his father, and/or
political party, becomes scapegoat for major global recession occurring
most of his term. The underlying economy should remain strong for most
of this year. Though some caution should be used, and this chart indicates
the real portion of the coming collapse should take place
well into 2001 and into 2002, possibly 2003. [Note, I had here inserted
a chart indicating when lows of bear markets occur during the election
cycle based on past elections, and it showed 2001 and 2002 as the most
The short-term bear market of this spring shall come to pass if the
Fed decides to dish out the medicine of higher interest rates in the
first half of the year to avoid doing so during the elections. When
the market declines significantly, expect consumer sentiment, confidence
and spending to shift, taking an alarming nose-dive. The economy has
been too dependent on massive consumer borrowing and spending,
also fueled by the "wealth effect" of sky-high market valuations.
We are soon to pay the price for it, too. In order to
bring this mania back from insanity, it can be expected for the Dow
to eventually plummet to around 2400, and that may be optimistic; it
may very well dip below 1,000. The NASDAQ will be hit
the hardest and will lose 60% at least and ultimately 90% (peak to trough)
in the coming years. [By spring 2001, the NASDAQ was
down 60%. The Fed did raise interest rates, and after the summer of
2000, all indicators such as consumer sentiment took an alarming nose-dive.]
Following this mania will be a constant, agonizing decline throughout
the times ahead, until roughly late 2004. The U.S. will join the rest
of the world in recession/deflation in due time -- no bubble lasts forever,
nor do they slowly deflate, as we saw in 1929. Watch for continually
higher interest rates. Make no mistake about it; the bull is nearly
dead and the overall trend will be down. [Of course, the bull died within
months, and did not slowly deflate.]
There is a mistaken sentiment that double-digit gains will always be
made. Historical data show that over the VERY long term (generations)
stocks do in fact earn better returns than other instruments However,
they tend to go through 16-20 year periods when it's either bullish
OR stagnant, as in the case of 1929 to 1950. For instance, from 1966-1982,
the Dow barely moved. In real inflation-adjusted purchasing
power, long term "buy and hold" stock investors LOST money.
In fact, long-term, dividend re-invested, inflation-
and tax-adjusted S&P 500 annual returns are NO MORE
THAN 4% !! Since 1871 it averages only 1.46%!
The present long-term cyclical bull-market that began
in 1982 is nearly 20 years old, and about to die. How long will this
one last, in order to purge and recoup? Oh, 16-20 years.
The coming bust will in part be determined by policy actions or inactions
of the Fed and government officials, as well as to what
degree consumers retrench or panic. It will certainly
be a recession, and it will certainly be global, severe and prolonged,
and may very well be identified as a genuine depression.
In the chapter, Global Economic Instability, the case is made that
the vastly increased global trade and world economy that has emerged
in the 1990's, contrary to popular belief that it marks
a New Era of global trade and co-operation, is actually a highly unstable
precursor for a global economic collapse in world trade similar to 1929-1930,
of which we got a taste of with the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. As said
by legendary Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volker:
"The fate of the world economy is now totally dependent on the
growth of the U.S. economy, which is dependent on the stock market,
whose growth is dependent on about 50 stocks, half of which have never
reported any earnings."
Foreigners currently own 40% of all U.S. debt, up from
10% only ten years ago. There should be a massive pullout
of the U.S. market, which is currently
viewed as a haven of foreign investors, thereby inducing a dramatic
drop in the dollar. This, combined with the astronomical money growth
of recent years, may very well produce an inflationary depression, or
stagflation, with a drop in standard of living. In this
scenario interest rates would skyrocket.
On the other hand, there are strong underlying deflationary forces
at work, such as the technological, productivity revolution innovating
the economy, oversupply and intense competitive forces.
The sharp reduction in demand on the part of consumers who have been
spending far beyond their means, consisting of two-thirds
of all domestic spending, would further exacerbate this deflationary
spiral. A reversal from borrow-and-spend to retrenchment and the resulting
reduction in demand -- most importantly of overseas
products -- bringing the currently nonexistent savings
rate back to historical levels will also be deflationary.
Investor and public sentiment took a dangerous turn to complacency
and over-confidence in the immediate post-Y2K time frame. Since then,
anyone with bearish thought has been scoffed at, ridiculed,
and met with sour hostility, even from many former bears now converted
into perma-bulls. This is a strong contrary indicator.
One of the only fears investors seem to have at present
is of missing out on triple-digit gains in the NASDAQ.
Ed Yardeni has gone back to his bullish New Economy/Dow
15,000 by 2005 mantra, and 99% of the public is content with a booming
economy and tight labor market. It's wine and roses forever --
forever and ever. Or so they surmise. The U.S. economy
grew at a 5.8% annual rate the last quarter of 1999! The federal budget
deficits rebuked; never-ending surpluses until 2010, or so says Clinton
(the actual debt is still over $5 trillion). Minimal
inflation! Unemployment rate 4.1%!
This, of course, is about to change. Enjoy it while you can, but don't
let all this good news fool you. There's a beginning and end to everything.
We are quickly approaching the last hurrah of our current bubble economy
and the tail end of the record nine-year-old booming
business cycle and are now awaiting the soon-to-arrive
U.S. and global recession-cum-depression. [It did change
Indeed, it is almost amusing to watch this mass delusion of extreme
froth of over-optimism, and how it is extrapolated into the future.
1999 and early 2000 will be remembered as a time of hubristic
euphoria, the ultimate calm before the storm. Or, taken
in the context of the 1997/98 global meltdown, the eye
of the storm. Sit back and take a wide-angle picture
of this current environment and save it for future reference, as it
shall contrast wildly with what is in store for the near and long-term
future. [Mark it down, this is now history.]
Recognizing this "sheeple" phenomenon of mass delusion and
sentiment, and the cyclical swing to and from pessimism or optimism,
is a fascinating pursuit. Throughout history the mood of any given population
repeatedly shifts in unison, often with abrupt turning points. It is
the reward of social historians and futurists to first capture and identify
this sentiment after objective observation, then through worldly events
and other forces, cycles or evidence, determine when the next shift
in mood will occur.
The general resurgence and boom/bull market that America has witnessed
for nearly two decades will soon be consolidated into a period of crisis
and upheaval where the nation's current mindset of superficial well-being
led by greed and blazing economy is swept away and imbalances and structural
weaknesses are exposed.
The limitations of such long-term projections is determining, with
any degree of accuracy, the precise year, month or day such a turning
point really begins. Fortunately there are shorter cycles that can be
found within the larger saeculum.
Using recent history as an example, we observed a brief period from
1983 to 1985 where the national mood of America shifted from one of
deep pessimism (Remember downbeat 1980 when the consensus forecasters
expected oil to run out and inflation to skyrocket? Disinflation and
cheap petrol became the reality.) to that of a pseudo rebirth
coinciding with President Reagan's "Morning in America." The
prevailing mood for the remainder of the eighties was that of a hollow
optimism with an underlying sense of a foreboding future as the nation's
fundamentals worsened (fiscal, trade deficits, relative social/economic
decline ... the unraveling).
The last hurrah of this epoch (in a sense it is not over yet, merely
interrupted) was the 1991 Gulf War and the burst of patriotism
it produced. The following prolonged economic decline and recession
plunged the national mood into another period of general despair that
lasted until roughly 1994/1995. Economists and forecasters at the time
were making all sorts of dire predictions, such as $500 billion budget
deficits and government bankruptcy by 1996, etc. It turned
out, of course, that these extrapolations -- based on the status quo
consensus of the time -- were once again dead wrong. Remember how Japan
was supposed to take over the world? It is now near collapse and is
running government deficits equal to 10% of GDP!
1994 marked another short-term turning point in public sentiment --
though few recognized it at the time. Since then the domestic U.S.
economy has grown at a brisk pace, the stock market tripled and deficits
became surpluses. The previous consensus forecasts were wrong. These
conditions have accelerated to that of hubris, which we are now in.
There have been short-lived times within this period when bursts of
pessimism reigned. The Asian crisis began in the fall of 1997 when
the Dow crashed 500 points and confidence (temporarily) receded. While
the crisis continued to worsen overseas, the U.S. economy
continued to advance when yet another short-lived grim mood took hold
in the fall of 1998 and stocks dropped 19%. The concerns of 1998 have
been all but forgotten -- but will eventually resume; the bubble wasn't
ready to burst yet; there was still more momentum to carry through 1999
when it rebounded sharply to its recent January 11,722 high. Mark this
number down; it may be referred to historians as the final top. [In
fact it was].
As in previous eras, the mainstream is extrapolating present conditions
-- that of a top -- linearly into the future, which time will
prove not only wrong, but also recklessly way off base.
These projections and the status quo consensus of such nonsense as
"Dow 36,000", even Dow 100,000, and multi-trillion dollar
federal budget surpluses will surely prove wrong along with the assumption
that the current boom and business cycle (already unprecedented) will
continue with absolutely no setbacks such as a recession!
This much-touted, so-called New Economy of rapid technological
and productivity revolution is, to be sure, a very real phenomenon,
yet it co-exists and is superimposed upon the most extremely
overblown bubble the world has seen. The Old Economy, with its familiar
and time-tested fundamentals of booms and busts governing a capitalist
system, is very much alive and well. The situation is
eerie and frighteningly reminiscent of 1929. History does in fact repeat,
in fact, almost in carbon copy fashion. This oft-quoted
professor declared just days before The Crash:
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanent high plateau
... I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today
within a few months" Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale
University, Oct 15, 1929
"The markets generally are now in a healthy condition
... values have a sound basis in the general prosperity of our country"
Charles E. Mitchell, president of the National City Bank, October 15,
About 40 years after a key technology begins to permeate society, an
historic depression takes place.
1920's: Declared "New
Era" with technological revolution, innovation and mania in newly
emerged telephone, radio and automobiles. RCA radio mania and 2,000
auto manufacturers, then consolidated into a tiny handful
by the end of the 1930's. Number of passenger cars on the road increased
from 7 million to 23 million. Automobile technology,
which evolved in the 1890's, hit 40 and the mid-technology depression
of 1929-1933 resulted.
1990's: Declared "New Economy" with technological revolution,
innovation and mania in newly emerged Internet and tech-heavy
NASDAQ sector. Microsoft, Yahoo! AOL,
and the thousands of upstart technology and Internet
businesses to be consolidated into a handful
by the late 2000's. The computer revolution that essentially
began in the mid-1960's points to the early 2000's.
1920's: "... it was an
age of consolidation ..." "...
the mergers of this period brought together not firms in competition
with each other but firms doing the same thing ... "
(TLC pogo. 44)
1990's: Mobil/Exxon, Sprint/Worldcom, etc., etc., etc. (not to mention
1920's: Newly emerged fad investment
vehicles called Trusts.
1990's: Newly emerged fad investment vehicles called mutual funds, among
a myriad of others.
1920's: President Calvin Coolidge
prosperity; declares, "The chief business of the American people
is business." Hoover becomes scapegoat for following depression.
1990's: President Clinton prosperity; declarations of prosperity in
final State of the Union address. Bush (or Mc Cain) and
Greenspan made scapegoat for coming depression.
1920's: Moralistic crusade
against vices. Lost generation; Prohibition; gangsters;
1990's: Moralistic crusade against vices. Generation X; war on drugs/cigarettes;
gangsters/rappers; drug dealers; grunge.
1920's: Skyrocketing personal
debt; over-leverage in financial markets. Margin purchases as measured
by Broker Loan Account totals grew from $1-1.5B in the early 1920s to
about $6 B in 1929 or between 400-500%. There was also a lot of call
money injected by businesses as well as individuals.
1990's: Skyrocketing personal debt; over-leverage in financial markets;
savings rate effectively zero; record bankruptcies despite boom. Leverage
margin requirements have remained at 50%, public now borrowing against
their portfolios at alarming rate; $230 billion in borrowed
debt in 1999, exploding from $115 billion in 1998, and from $62 billion
in November 1994!
1920's: Breadth on the NYSE
began to deteriorate in May 1928, long before the Great Crash.
1990's: Since mid-1998 until present market breadth has made its greatest
divergence in stock market history.
1920's: Dollar trading volume
shortly before the 1929 crash in stocks approached 130% of GDP, which
normally, historically averaged 25% in normal times.
1990's: Dollar trading skyrocketed and has now reached 200%!
1920's: The saying of the late
1920's: "When the average Joe Public starts entering the market
en masse, then a crash is imminent ..."
1990's: Baby boomers and the public plow their savings into the market
for retirement or speculation and Internet traders take
part in the boom. Percentage of public who owned stocks in the mid-eighties
was 18%. It has now reached 50%!
1920's: Historically, market
capitalizations are about 50% of GDP. Before the 1929 crash it rose
1990's: It is now over 125% of GDP!
1920's: Historically extremely
priced stock bubble. Immediately prior to the Crash of 1929 the P.E.
stood at only 16 Times, Dividend Yields cruised at about 2.9%, and Market
Price was topping at 2 Times Book. Dow index appreciated more than 275%
from 1924 to 1929.
1990's: Historically extremely priced stock bubble. Aggregate index
of S&P 500 plus NASDAQ plus Dow almost identical
in scope and run-up. In fact, exceeding it. P.E. ratio reached 35 to
1 in the S&P 500. Dividend Yields were a very miserly 1.3%. Market
Price to Book an astronomical 6 TIMES. The Dow index
increased in value nearly 230% recently during an equal
1920's: During 1929 the FED
used its open market mechanisms to attempt to stem the boom. The Treasury's
inventories got very low at that time.
1990's: The FED is using its open market mechanisms to attempt to stem
the boom. Treasury's inventory of securities are right now very low.
1920's: Germany lost World
War One, suffered massive hyperinflation and depression throughout decade,
resulting in dictator, ultimately leading to World War Two.
As a result of these hardships
a new strategic paradigm will emerge, which actually began in 1999 during
the Kosovo crisis where a Global Realignment took place, as a precursor
for this war to come.
1990's: Russia lost Cold War in dissolution of Soviet Union, followed
by hyperinflation and depression throughout decade. Will ultimately
lead to dictator (Putin?) who will lead us to World War Three.
We're facing a few rough years ahead, but it won't be the end of the
world. There will always be nations and human civilizations to inhabit
the Earth. Despite temporary hardships, we will once again climb out
of the rubble and start over like a Phoenix rising from
the ashes, soaring to ever-greater heights. However, as history demonstrates,
the price paid for social and economic progress is periods
of severe wars, chaos and human suffering. This tends to repeatedly
occur once every fourth generation, in a Fourth Turning Crisis. Since
the last major era of crises and conflicts ended in 1945, we are now
soon due for another.
To the casual observer -- particularly the average American who has
never experienced the trauma of depression or global war -- such dark
visions are difficult to comprehend or emotionally accept -- even
more so when taken in the context of our current era of prosperity and
general optimism. Unfortunately, we have now passed the
point of no return; the journey is about to begin.
One can take consolation in the potential return of
stability after the upcoming time of trauma
consolidates into resolution beyond 2010 or 2015. Such
evolution from birth, maturity, decay, death then rebirth of humans,
societies and nations is not only natural and (in a sense) desirable,
but unavoidable. How we emerge from these crises ultimately depends
on how we prepared for and reacted to its consequences within the larger
framework of human destiny.
Chapter 4: March, 2000 economic
NOTE: This is an untouched,
unedited version of an economic forecast made March 17, 2000 based on
a prophetic, divine dream which came almost entirely true.
March 17, 2000.
"Strange times are these
in which we live when old and young are taught in falsehoods school.
And the one man that dares to tell the truth is called at once a lunatic
and fool" (Plato)
Remember the event mentioned
in the last message? An event to occur on March 16? Well, it was a panic
alright...a buying-panic-rally with the Dow skyrocketing 499 points!
The latest gross domestic product report indicated the U.S. economy
grew at an astonishing (and of course unsustainable) 6.9% at an annual
rate in the last quarter of 1999! New Economy, or bubble? Actually,
both. Yes, the nature of conducting business is changing due to the
current technological innovation -- exactly like the late 1920's. Yes,
this is additionally the greatest speculative mania of all-time, exceeding
even that of 1929 in virtually all respects. This is a far more dangerous
situation as the market is now heavily intertwined with consumer spending,
borrowing and the economy in general, as well as massive foreign ownership,
the result of persistent, record trade deficits.
Notice the eerie calm and silence among bears in the past month or
two? They all seem to have given up, exhausted by the relentless bullishness
of the complacent majority, thereby throwing in the towel; or at least
hibernating. Their growl has turned to an impotent whimper. This is
how one can determine calamity lies directly around the corner: You
are the only one left; the last bear crying wolf, adamantly screaming,
"The end is nigh!" The current environment is a contrarian's
dream come true. Then again, that's what we all said last year, and
the year before, and....well, ahem..THIS TIME it's different!
Even though the vast, vast majority of stocks are currently well into
a bear market, the public and media seem to be heavily focusing only
on the rallies occurring mostly to the fringe, tulip-mania sectors;
dot-coms, bio-tech and computers. For some months now--particularly
since January -- extreme volatility due to "distribution at the
top" created a situation where vast quantities of money gushes
from the interest-rate sensitive Old Economy sector into the fad, New
Economy, Nasdaq stocks. (Remember the mid-1990's fad: the Global Economy?
Or the Asian Tigers?)
A mania can be discerned by its exponential time of doubling. Eventually
it will and must come to an abrupt U-turn -- a crash -- thereby free-falling
with great losses in a very short period of time. That time is close
at hand. [Of course, it did, within a month.]
The following demonstrates this recent growth pattern as the Nasdaq
broke through several barriers, and the time to arrive at such:
Nasdaq milestones: First 1000 points; 1,248 weeks. Crossing 2000; 156
weeks. Crossing 3000; 60 weeks. Crossing 4000; 17 weeks. Crossing 5000;
10 weeks. Back to 4000. But the next number will either one last final
blow-off to 6000 -- or -- the final reckoning is at hand.
This is occurring in the face of continually rising interest rates,
tight labor market, ultra-booming domestic economy and record volatility.
In this surreal state of being, the market can fly anywhere; violently
crashing one day, violently rallying the next. The markets will in fact
continue to do so over the coming weeks. This is a speculator's dream
come true; and a nightmare for the average investor. It seems pointless
at this juncture in attempting to call the absolute, exact top in terms
of the entire conglomerated market, but the general top we are indeed
immersed in, or have surpassed, at the very present.
The big clincher, or the nail in the coffin, will be a half-point hike
in interest rates by the Fed on March 21. I don't know if this was a
prophetic dream or not (therefore from God, like others I have had recently),
but in early March I had a lucid dream that this was indeed the case:
interest rates, in this vision, went up a full half-point, and the press
made a big commotion of it, and so did investors: there was chaos for
several days. Whether this was for March 21 or some other time in the
future cannot be determined, but mark my words: it will ultimately happen
soon enough. [Of course, it did come to pass]
In any case, time's well over-due for the market to crash horrendously
in the near-term, and the Nasdaq will lead the way; don't be caught
in the maelstrom. [The Nasdaq led the way.]
If the final market top (well, at least in the Dow and S&P) was
reached January 15, 2000 at 11,722, and if we see a replay of 1929 and
1987, it can guesstimated that since the crash of those years were 55
to 60 days from the peak, mid-March onwards will be very, very nasty.
[The top was correctly called, an two months later the markets reach
the general peak.]
But if the top is determined by the now significant Nasdaq, the Crash
still lies well down the line. Historically, often, the actions of the
stock market precedes real economic conditions by three to six months.
Therefore, if this scenario play out in the weeks ahead, the upcoming
recession will begin late this year, after the elections, but observing
the strength of the here-and-now bubble and all the momentum it contains,
a nasty downturn into 2001 and beyond seems more plausible. Poor 'ol
G. W. Bush; having to suffer the fate of his father; he had better be
skillfully adept at shifting or deflecting blame, for he and his political
party will be held responsible for the economic disaster that is to
occur during his reign.
The precise character, magnitude and length the up-coming but not imminent
recession is difficult to determine with any precision, yet will certainly
be one of the most painful in this nation's history, in order to match
and purge the speculative excesses of the currently unprecedented boom.
The present sentiment throughout the status quo is that the U.S. will
continue the record 9-year-old upturn, indefinitely extending well into
the years ahead, is obviously unrealistic. There are many indicators
now popping up from all sides since early this year that are convincingly
evidentiary of an impending U.S. recession that may begin and manifest
as early as late this year, which will definitely snowball into 2001
and 2002, and the effects much longer. First, Greenspan perceives and
links the boisterous economy of late to possible inflationary pressures,
which he feels obliged to intervene. There is little real evidence of
this supposed inflation, of course, but the Guru Chairman is stubbornly
adamant about continually raising interest rates until things get ugly.
He is determined to do this well before the elections, and it is a sure
bet rates will go up -- possibly way up come the March Federal reserve
open market meeting. So far investors merely shrugged off the last three
hikes which were minute slaps on the wrist. But this next hike and those
following -- particularly if it is more than a quarter percent; the
straw that breaks the camel's back. It is also clear he and his cronies
are attempting to deflate the irrationally exuberant stock bubble. Preferably
he may wish and hope for these actions and medicine to be delivered
cautiously, administered over the months ahead, resulting in a "soft
landing," thereby averting a crash and recession. This has been
attempted several times throughout history, and throughout history has
always failed; resulting in disaster as the following shows:
U.S.A., 1927; Interest rates lowered 0.5 of a percentage point due to
a potential international financial crisis. 1928; Three interest rate
increases. 1929; NY Federal Reserve Bank proposes interest rate increase
in February; rejected by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington. Interest
rates increased 0.5 of a percentage point in August. Stockmarket loses
35 per cent
JAPAN 1987; Potential global
crisis as a result of Black Monday stockmarket crash - low interest
rate policy from October 1987 to May 1989. 1989; Three interest rate
increases. 1990; Interest rate increase of one percentage point in March.
Interest rates increased 0.75 of a percentage point in August. Stockmarket
loses 40 percent.
U.S.A.; 1998 Interest rates
lowered three times as a result of a potential global meltdown. 1999;
Three interest rate increases. 2000; Interest rate increase of 0.25
of a percentage point in February. ??
[Of course, interest rates
went up a half point in spring, 2000, with a very sharp slow down afterwards.]
Chapter 5: Japan
Once perceived as an economic miracle and model to be followed, Japan
has actually been in what may be called a depression for the past decade
after its bubble popped in 1990. Its stock market is still half the
level achieved in 1989. Interest rates are almost zero, and deflation
is the predominant worry as they reel under the weight
of a trillion dollars in bad, un-performing bank debt procured during
their version of America's 1920's: the 1980's.
The much-touted Asian recovery following the 1997 and 1998 financial
crises is, at best, a temporary and illusory aberration. While most
east Asian countries have been able to avert further declines and collapses,
and their stock markets are recovering, the underlying fundamentals
of this region's largest economy, Japan, continue to
slide in and out of oblivion.
After spending all of 1998 in recession, it is back in recession with
GDP declining 3.9% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 1999
and is fully expected to have declined in a similar fashion
in the last quarter, as the soon-to-be-released official figures will
confirm. This is in spite of massive, stimulatory government
borrowing and spending with government deficits approaching 9% of GDP,
adding to the astounding overall debt level of nearly 150% of GDP.
One of the major factors recently and currently preventing a collapse
and why the 1998 crisis was halted is the booming U.S. economy as flush
consumers snap up record amounts of autos and other products in the
recent and ongoing credit-fueled spending binge, generously
provided by record credit issuance by Santa Greenspan and his elves.
If Japan cannot seem to recover to any significant degree with all this
robust demand the U.S. and other Western nations are offering, what
happens when Americans stop spending and enter a recession?
Answer: A spiraling deflationary disaster.
When -- not if, when -- the U.S. stock market crashes and enters its
long-term secular bear market, a negative wealth effect
will take hold and demand for overseas products will abate quite substantially.
In this market collapse, foreign investors are likely to begin pulling
out of the currently high-flying U.S. indexes, further precipitating
a downward stock-price spiral. The dollar would drop, thereby increasing
the cost and therefore demand of these foreign products, further reducing
The cycle of borrow-and-spend on the part of consumers to that of save-and-retrenchment
and attendant asset price deflation (if it turns out to be a general
commodity and price inflationary recession, assets will lose their value
relative to goods) will boost the current nonexistent savings rate back
to the historical 6 to 10%.
Structural, systemic weakness, such as margin debt and over-leverage
that are always masked during the bubble, will become apparent in a
decline of more than about 18 to 20%, thereby initiating a financial
crisis similar to the fall 1998 Long Term Management debacle. The former
almost precipitated a massive, cascading cross-default
among banks and financial institutions until the Fed came to the rescue,
bailing them out. This time will be substantially worse than the environment
of 1998, and there is more at stake.
Chapter 6: Latest economic
news and insights, July 30, 2000, documented for the record
Due to the diversion created
by angelic duties since the awakening, I had strayed
from covering the economic portion of the site, until having another
vision, which came to pass thereafter. Here was the brief experience
as documented on the site and was the next analysis, sent out to subscribers,
here unedited for the record:
"Recently, mid-July, I had another vivid dream which I regard
as precognitive which will be mentioned. This vision was too phenomenal
to be 'just another dream.' In this vision I was actually out-of-body,
behind the scenes, present with them inside the Federal Reserve, in
the same room with Alan Greenspan and his colleagues, and witnessed
their distress and conversations with respect to the economy and upcoming
interest rate rises and their relationship and intentions. Greenspan
was leaning on a table discussing with colleagues in an informal manner
with his face distorted.
"The 'distress' of their conversation conflicted what the board
has been saying to the public as of late. It concerned the public view
of their intentions to orchestrate a 'soft landing' which indicated
they were (PRIVATELY) actually attempting to do more than this by continuing
even further rate rises, almost deliberately (?) plunging the economy
into recession next year! So despite the public overtures of knowing
control in keeping the economy prosperous indefinitely, the behind-the-scene
situation differs markedly to that of agony and conspiracy, at least
that's what I saw while in this vision.
"As this letter is written, the economy is showing some tangible
signs of slowing, even though the latest figures showed GDP expanding
at an annual rate of 5.8% in the second quarter. The author has maintained
for some time now that this is just the beginning of something far more
dire. Obviously this view is not very popular considering the prevailing
attitude amongst many (or most) economists and public who have grown
accustomed to the long boom which the U.S. has experienced for so many
years now. It is so easy to be deceived into the belief that "this
time it's different" in such an environment of popular opinion.
"Although nothing earth-shattering is likely to occur in terms
of world altering events until roughly late 2004, a general economic
shake-up is certain. It will revolve around the 'New Economy' paradigm
of the computer/internet economic revolution/bubble/boom. This shake-up
will involve mass consolidation of the thousands and thousands of internet
start-up businesses we've witnessed blossom of late. The vast majority
(80%) will go belly-up and therefore consolidate over the short period
of a couple years, which shall involve an ultra nasty recession with
the stock prices of these tech-companies with the indexes thereof (i.e.
Nasdaq) plunging to unheard-of lows before recovering. This, by the
way, is a necessary component of such consolidation: it cannot occur
on a mass scale until share prices are sufficiently low enough to make
such large scale buy-outs economically feasible.
"However, despite all of this economic shake-down and corresponding
pain thereof, the technology boom and spread of the internet will not
only continue well into the years ahead, but will ultimately become
standard and indispensable for businesses to EVEN SURVIVE beyond the
times ahead. Therefore businesses and organizations MUST aggressively
expand with great ingenuity into this new medium if they even expect
to stay in business; even if it means no profit and losses for some
time to come. Competition is fierce indeed.
"It is not the strong that survive...but those most adaptable
to change. This is true of life in general. Don't be afraid of change
and therefore growth. Don't go with the flow...swim faster than the
That was all I wrote concerning the economy for the rest of 2000 while
redirecting energies to the book.
As you can see, all of this came true. The shakedown revolved around
the "New Economy" paradigm, and the economy slowed dramatically
from that point on. It was difficult to determine the exact conversation
while in the Reserve board, and was confused as to whether the conversation
meant future rates rises, or that implied they had been raising them
too much, too fast previously, creating a 2001 recession. It was the
latter. The nail in the coffin was the half-point hike in spring 2000.
Chapter 7: Comment on above
Remember that all of the above
was written in early 2000 or earlier. In fact, due to Daniel's angelic
diversion, most of the economic analyses in this section
were all prior to mid-2000. Although the content of the dream came to
pass, it did not ensue in the exact chronology expected (the rate rise
came after the crashes), but it came true nevertheless.
So, also projected was a sideways and/or rising market through the fall,
at which time there is an extremely high possibility of further declines
before election time. That has been true. The NASDAQ
had lost about 50% of its value by year's end and 60% by spring 2001,
and the crashes of spring 2000 were correctly called.
Remember also that this forecast was made at a time when everyone was
extremely bullish, and talk of crashes at the time was ridiculed.
The technology and Internet sectors did indeed experience
a very painful consolidation and shakedown. Yet everyone thought the
boom was everlasting. It was very short, and Daniel foresaw this.
The outlook based on precognitive dreams all came true.
Specifically, these are the July 1999 prophetic dream concerning the
outcome of Y2K (see Internet archives: http://www.listbot.com/archive/collapse
edition #72 or 73), and the March 2000 vision of the interest rate rise
and stock market crashes (see #85) which occurred shortly after. The
next vision occurred in the summer of 2000, when out-of-body,
in the Federal Reserve, I overheard Alan Greenspan's
conversations with colleagues about engineering a 2001/2002 recession,
or their fear that the previous, successive 6 rises in rates would do
so. This was a future event (see # 89).
The most recent fulfillment of a projection made in March 2000 was
a sideways or rising market through the summer, with crashes before
or during the elections; to pass in the second week of October, with
the Dow losing nearly 800 points in the previous week, and crashing
379 points on Thursday, the 12th. It's not over. The peak of the Dow
was indeed 11,722, called in mid-January, 2000.
Remember, the Y2K scare was a warning issued which altered the outcome.
Not a prophecy from God intended to be 100% correct, even though Daniel's
1999 Y2K vision DID come true very accurately. It may seem like extremely
bad timing to be touched by the hand of God during the pre-
and post-Y2K time frame. God works in mysterious but
just ways and has a sense of humor, He waited until shortly
before Y2K -- after I had been saying Y2K could be a disaster for 18
months -- to consciously awake and activate the dormant angel within
and tell me I was Daniel. This was done to test my will and patience
and ability to deal with criticism while simultaneously coming forward
with this extraordinary information revealed.
It was not I who appointed and identified as such and was not my choice.
It was the choice and doings of God, and to publicly humiliate and bring
low His loyal servant; "Humiliation is the beginning of sanctification."
Look at it this way: it would have been the work of the 'devil' to "boost
my credibility" by making perfectly correct Y2K predictions,
then immediately come forward with this information of Daniel's awakening
to readers as I did in mid-January, 2000, shortly after the rollover.
God has done this to me also to weed out the wicked and
unwise, and those who cannot see. Please understand that the reason
I and many others were "wrong" on Y2K was for a special reason:
Y2K was a unique and alterable event in which my extensive involvement
was (sub-consciously) directed in order to create a self-defeating
prophecy according to God's Plan. The previous fear-mongering and dire
assessments were necessary to shock people into action. I was only one
of many sacrificial servants to this cause (crusade?).
In the story of Jonah for instance, the citizens of his city listened
to his screams for repentance, they took heed, and thereby avoided a
calamity. Would you then label Jonah a "false prophet?" Let
us use a little common sense: did the prophets of old really know everything
about the future? Of course not. You can be certain Daniel made plenty
of errors in forecasting when he (me) was administrator over the affairs
of Babylon. These were left out of the Scripture that was submitted
because it had little or nothing to do with God. It was determining,
for instance, how the weather and other agricultural growing seasons
would develop. The dreams and prophetic encounters that were included
in the scriptural manuscript were due to their divine nature, and I
also will only discuss the visions of divine origin I
The main prophecy from which all else stems (as opposed to "prediction")
I make in the name of the Lord, based on an interpretation
of the Doomsday Clock, a vision that was in fact from
God, as were the handful of other visions mentioned. Again, the details
are presently not known; they are secret and sealed until the time is
right, and it is not a crime to speculate as to what these details may
be until that occurs. The current physical embodiment severely limits
this intuitive insight and ability. Sure it would be nice for Daniel
to snap his fingers and receive all the information he wants, but that's
not how it works. This distinction must be emphasized very strongly;
the economic portion is something I know must occur as a precursor to
the main strategic series of crises. Yet it is insane to expect a prophetic
analysis involving many, many details and variables to come true word
for word, unless it is based on a vision from God. As another example,
Daniel could speculate on who the next president would be, but would
never include it as "scripture" or from God unless it came
in an unmistakable vision. Therefore only would Daniel ever include
such visions which would be infallible.
Chapter 8: Daniel praises God
The purest form of prophecy
was the request to subscribers to pray for Daniel to have a vision of
Christ; to see Him in person. This took place on Easter of 2000. Our
prayers to God were answered.
It was the same spirit of prophecy that I employed in the previous
incarnation as Biblical Daniel when under the threat of death from King
Nebuchadnezzar of Babylon because the wise men could not tell him and
interpret his troubling dream; in requesting for the prayerful aid of
my companions, God gave the dream to me in a vision by night, thereby
saving the lives of all the wise men doomed to destruction. The April
23 incident was identical in that it was an all-or-nothing
ultimatum to see Christ, which I did, on the exact day expected. See
chapter 2 for the whole story. After the dream was revealed,
"He gives wisdom to the
wise and knowledge to those who have understanding. He reveals deep
and hidden things; he knows what is in the darkness, and light dwells
with him. To you, O God of my ancestors, I give thanks and praise, for
you have given me wisdom and power, and have now revealed to me what
we asked of you, for you have revealed to us what the king ordered."
Daniel would only conduct
such an organized prayer if he knew God would follow through and something
would be seen. It was seen last time, and it will again. But I do not
know what it will be. It takes wisdom to discern the
difference between a true vision from God, and one that is just a regular
dream. God has allowed Daniel to differentiate between them,
and only the former are mentioned in the book of Daniel.
Chapter 9: Business cycle,
The business cycle of the
economy for the U.S. since 1933.
Note that the average expansion cycle since 1945 averages 5 years.
The average since 1854 is 4 years. The longest recorded was 1961 to
1969, 8 1/2 years. We are near the end of one of the
most prosperous cycles in U.S. history. The last recession ended in
March 1991. As of this writing in early 2000, we are
in the tenth year of expansion. The probability of recession beyond
2000 is extremely high, and a virtual certainty. BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE
DATES -periods of economic expansion- DURATION IN MONTHS:
March 1933 to May 1937 = 50 months
June 1938 to February 1945 = 80 months
October 1945 to November 1948 = 37 months
October 1949 to July 1953 = 45 months
May 1954 to August 1957 = 39 months
April 1958 to April 1960 = 28 months
February 1961 to December 1969 = 106 months
November 1970 to November 1973 = 36 months
March 1975 to January 1980 = 58 months
July 1980 to July 1981 = 12 months
November 1982 to July 1990 = 92 months
March 1991 to present (March 2000) = 125 months and counting....
(the economy still has some steam left -- we are now on the verge of
a new U.S. and global recession. It's now official --
the longest peacetime expansion in US history.)
Average, all cycles: 1945-1991 (9 cycles)11 months (contractions) 50
months (expansions) Average, peacetime cycles 1945-1991 (7 cycles)11
months (contraction) 43 months (expansions)
Note: The business cycle of the 1990's can be divided into two periods:
The first 4-year period from 1990-1994 was characterized by recession
and high unemployment (even though it technically ended
in 1991.) The 4-year period from 1994-1998 was one of expansion. The
period from 2001-2002 will probably be one of contraction. Based on
the four-year cycle, we can expect a contractionary period very soon.
Chapter 10: Sunspot Cycle
Although it may seem like
quackery, there is a well-known correlation between weather patterns
and drought that accompany the 11-year sunspot cycle. As well, human
tension, excitability and a sharp economic recession often occur right
at the peak in solar activity.
The following shows the sunspot cycle since the mid 1950's. Also note
that periods of low solar activity are characterized by relative calm,
stability, and economic growth. (Example, early 1960's, 1975-1979, 1984-1989,
Sunspot peak and recession...1957-1958 (also 1960)
Peak and recession............1969-1970
Peak and recession............1980 (also 1981-1982)
Peak and recession............1990-91
The sunspot peak is due in 2000-2001-2002, which is
when recession will hit, and human tensions and excitability should
also be high.
Many wars tend to accompany these times also (e.g.,
1917 WW I, 1939 WW II, 1968-1970 Vietnam, 1979 Iran war, 1990-1991 Gulf
war, 1999-?? Kosovo and Iraq conflict, then WWIII?).
Chapter 11: Global Economic
"An unregulated global
economy dominated by corporations that recognize money as their only
value is inherently unstable, egregiously unequal, destructive of markets,
democracy, and life, and is impoverishing humanity in real terms even
as it enriches a few in financial terms." – Dr.
David C. Korten
In order to understand the
current global economic crisis we must look at the history of the past
30-50 years and how wealth inequality, world trade and debt relate and
fit the big picture.
The U.S. of the past 50 years can be likened to the core of an empire
-- in this case, a business empire. Peripheries of this
American Empire in the post-WWII era would be Germany,
Japan, parts of Europe, Asia and South America. At the rise of this
empire (1945-early 1970's), the peripheral countries
gather economic momentum which, as time goes by, accelerates at the
expense of the core. These satellite nations become dependent on the
empire to sell their goods, which in turn are traded for its currency
($US) which is then re-invested to produce even more goods for exports.
Fierce competition and proliferation of consumer goods from the satellite
nations causes high-wage paying industries in the core to cut back as
traditional industries (steel, autos) succumb to global pressures with
losses of high-paying jobs. As the economy of the core
transforms, lost jobs are then replaced with sub-standard, low-wage
jobs (services). The loss of buying power of the now shrinking middle
class grows and the poverty rate increases with each passing year.
With a loss of real wages, disposable income declines
Expecting a constant rise in the standard of living, consumers begin
to borrow on credit through credit cards, equity loans and extended
car loans to maintain the status quo they've come to expect during the
high. With productivity and real taxable income beginning to shrink,
government spending continues to climb as before, creating cumulative
deficits. This creates a demand for credit and debt which can only be
met by the affluent, and most importantly, capital accumulated ($US)
by the peripheries (e.g. Japan) from imbalanced trade deficits with
the core. In other words, high demand for credit raises real interest
rates in the debtor nation, thereby attracting surplus foreign capital.
In effect, the core becomes an exporter of money as the peripheries
export goods, the proceeds of which are used to finance
This cycle continues unabated until there is an extreme imbalance in
the distribution in income and wealth, also fueled by misguided
tax policies. Middle-class consumers, unwilling to reduce their expenditures
to match their falling incomes, borrow more and more heavily,
creating further transfer of wealth to the affluent in the form of interest
payments. With so much capital in the hands of the few, it is socked
away in speculative investments such as the stock markets,
creating a bubble (1982 to present, especially 1995-on). As the bubble
grows, it attracts more and more average
people who would otherwise save. This then creates a "wealth effect,"
where people feel richer and correspondingly spend more, which keeps
the bubble economy accelerating in the core of the empire.
Eventually the unfortunate bottom 80% become so indebted and over-extended
their actual net worth becomes nothing, and the net savings rate becomes
nil. Unable to borrow any further, spending becomes stretched as oversupply
in durable goods permeates world markets. Satellite exporter countries,
having an oversupply of capital and goods, begin to collapse in a deflationary
spiral as the core can no longer absorb the glut. In the final stage
of the empire, the core is able to hang on until the last minute even
while its peripheries' bubble markets and economies burst. In this brave
new world of unregulated currency flows, capital flees toward the core,
further increasing the speculative bubble. This is where we stood in
late 1998 with much of the world collapsing with Asia in deflationary
crisis, Russia, Latin America and Brazil's financial system falling
apart, and America holding on. The expansion continues even further,
and stops the dominoes from falling further (witness stabilization after
fall 1998) and aids a worldwide recovery.
Finally, the core of the empire becomes overextended
and imbalanced, overloaded with debt at all levels. When the economy
begins to slow, the structural weakness becomes evident as it enters
a deflationary spiral. Burdened by a historically extreme credit bubble,
it can no longer grow its economy with satellite surplus capital, increased
debt loads (let alone service the existing debt), and effectively begins
defaulting, with bubbles bursting, and consumers stop spending and begin
saving again, further contributing to the collapse. The empire's core,
unable to withstand the financial strain of collapse, comes crashing
down, bringing the peripheries and much of the global economy and international
division of labor with it.
Conclusion: The American Global Business Empire, based
on many decades of unregulated laissez-faire capitalism
-- actually ruled by crony capitalism and central banks --
is at risk of collapsing in a fashion similar to 1929-1933, even as
the USSR communist empire within the coming years. We
can pretty much be confident that our current socio-economic
system will not survive its present form much longer, resulting in societal
transformation, series of crises and conceivably, ultimately, WWIII.
Capitalism, the triumphant economic system of the last two hundred
years, has efficiently produced the most affluent economies on earth.
It tends to mirror the "strong survive" of nature and follows
in rhythms and cycles of boom & bust. It has been transformed and
modified throughout recent times to produce various forms of socialism
and combinations thereof. We've seen the collapse of Communism
and Fascism, and current-style socialism
is on the wane. From the view of the1990's,
it would seem that capitalism emerged the winner. Or is it ready to
collapse as well?
Free market capitalism has it benefits and flaws. It tends to be dehumanizing,
unstable, and destructive, and creates
extreme wealth disparity when controls are absent. Most democracies
have added social safety nets in the twentieth century (which are now
being dismantled) to ease the suffering of those on the lower end, or
controls on finance like the Federal Reserve or FDIC.
Capitalism is not perfect, of course, and tends to result in imbalanced
excesses which must be corrected through a severe economic decline such
as a depression and market collapse.
The biggest challenge to capitalism was the 1930's Great
Depression. While scholars still tend to disagree on the causes, it
can be shown (as on this page) that long-term structural imbalances
require a near (or total) collapse for a new order to be reborn
from the old. Over time the degree of each depression becomes magnified
and ratcheted up in intensity.
Let us move on to the more serious flaws of late 20th-century
capitalism and the destabilizing effect it creates.
Disparity of wealth is natural
in most economies and certainly in the U.S. There is nothing wrong with
some owning more than others, and it is probably healthy
for economic development and progress. However, in certain eras it becomes
extreme and unhealthy as it fractures the social-economic landscape,
Eventually (if allowed to continue) it will result in a revolution,
or in the case of 1920's America, a depression.
The U.S. of 1920-1929 is strikingly similar to 1990-1999.
In fact, disparity in wealth exceeds that of 1929. As well, the stock
market is in a speculative bubble, consumer debt far exceeds 1929 levels,
and economists are declaring the fundamentals "sound". What
followed was an unprecedented depression which equalized financial wealth,
paving the way for a long-term boom in productivity, affluence and a
tide that "lifted all boats". From WWII to about 1973, wealth
inequality remained stable, then widened sharply. Now
the 1990's story mirrors that of 70 years ago, only worse.
The 1960 after-tax average pay for CEO's was 12 times that of the average
worker. By 1974 it was 35 times. In 1995 it was 135 times. (That's the
ratio of the top to the average, not to the bottom, and it only counts
salaries, not perks or returns on investment. The world's 358 billionaires
have a combined net worth equal to that of the bottom 45% of the world's
population (over two billion people).
OWNERSHIP OF NET FINANCIAL
As a result, of the total
financial wealth in U.S. households at the beginning of the '90s, the
richest 1% of the households owned 48% of it, the next richest 19% owned
46% of it, and the bottom 80% owned 6% of it. (Source: Wolff, '95) Put
another way, the top 20% own virtually all net wealth, with the top
1% owning more than the combined wealth of the bottom 90%.
At the same time as these trends grew, they were fueled by a reduction
in the top marginal tax rate under the Reagan Administration in the
1980's. This was done under the noble but misguided policy of Supply-Side
Economics. The theory was to put more money in the hand of the rich,
which would then be invested in industry, thereby creating
jobs for the poor in a "trickle-down" manner.
The eventual result was record speculation and corporate takeovers
which the 1980's became famous for. This has, of course,
continued well into the 1990's and is at an all-time high.
Average weekly earnings of
nonsupervisory workers, total private industry, 1982 dollars:
1973 315 (Peak)
1992 255 (Nadir) While executive salaries skyrocketed:
Income Bracket Percent Increase
$20,000 - 50,000 44%
200,000 - 1 million 697
Over $1 million 2,184
Since household debt has risen at rates 70% faster than growth of the
economy since the late 1960s when real median family incomes stopped
rising, such suggests real equity and savings are not
the driving force of economic size - - it is all debt-driven.
This is an indicator of how families try to maintain their apparent
living standards and consumption ("keeping up with the Joneses"
with no income growth to do so). They compensate for stagnant incomes
by rapidly expanding credit -- credit cards and later the more dangerous
form of credit for consumption being home equity loan financing of household
consumption. At the same time that families face less Social Security/Medicare
benefits when they retire (than their elders), many head toward their
golden years more and more in debt with lower home equity (than their
If the 1996 debt ratio had been the same as in the 1960s, then 1996
debt in dollars would have been $2.1 trillion less than
it was. In other words, the 1996 household debt would have been $3.3
trillion - - not the $5.4 trillion that
This shows that the economy is more leveraged by household debt than
ever before. And, households are even more at the mercy of credit availability
and interest rates. So as families spend more and purchase on credit,
they also save less. America used to save 10% of its income. This would
enable extra capital to be used for investments by business. This capital
is now supplied by foreigners. Consumers have reduced their savings
rate dramatically, and according to the latest data, the rate
is actually negative! The lowest in 70 years! Obviously this will not
continue for very long.
How can interest rates be so relatively low in the U.S. when the household
savings rate is effectively less than zero, and consumers spend like
crazy? For one, the immense tax inflows of past years, a result of a
booming economy (not the Clinton administration), have eliminated the
federal government deficits that plagued us since the eighties and has
offset this net savings shortfall, at least in terms
of the national economy. Second, hundreds of billions of dollars have
flowed in from overseas, the result of record-breaking
U.S. trade deficits, filling the demand for savings. Thirdly, as previously
mentioned, the stock market has lately replaced traditional vehicles
of saving and has the effect of giving a misleading picture
when one looks at the official data and charts; when the realized capital
gains reported to the IRS are accounted for, we arrive at a household
savings rate of around 10% ...where it has been historically.
This situation is dangerous and cannot and will not continue forever,
and thus one can expect a volatile and disastrous environment
in years ahead.
As recently as the Eighties the percentage of the populace owning stocks
was 18%. It has now reached 50%. Apparently the sheeple now think stocks
are risk-free and can never go down ... what a slap on
the face they shall receive in a few months! This is why the household
savings rate has been into negative territory the past couple of
years: (a) the stock market significantly replaced traditional
avenues of savings such as banks, and (b) consumers continue
to vastly overspend, beyond the rise in incomes, fueled
by an inflated stock and housing price boom via the wealth effect.
At some point consumers will retrench and begin saving again, as they
always do in a recession, an action that would throw
the economy into a tailspin. Investors will, by their actions and loss
of confidence in the midst of a such a global recession,
fly to the nations out of the U.S. Investors may flee to their home
countries, thereby pulling out of what is currently the
haven of quality and choice: America. Should this take place, markets
would utterly collapse, the dollar would drop quite dramatically, resulting
in galloping inflation in a nation that imports vast amounts of foreign
This means that the boom we witnessed in the 1990's was fueled by consumers
spending not only all disposable income, but going into debt in a spending
binge the likes we have never before seen. This cannot
and will not continue indefinitely. This also means the health of the
economy has become dependent on sky-high stock market valuations and
the wealth effect it creates. The money supply has grown
astronomically in the nineties, particularly since 1994. Traditionally
this has resulted in price inflation, but not this time, as it has instead
gone into and fueled an asset inflation, or bubble in stocks and housing.
Other countries -- Britain, Sweden and Japan in the eighties --
have also seen sharp slumps in net savings when they experienced asset-price
bubbles in housing or stock markets. Their economies were later severely
damaged when bursting asset prices caused savings to rebound to above-normal
levels, to correct previous over-borrowing. Between 1989 and 1994, for
instance, Britain's private net savings rate swung from minus 6% to
plus 6% of GDP. Then what happened was obvious: a deep
What's interesting is the fact that even in the past so-called economic
boom, the personal bankruptcy rate was near record highs! Just imagine
it in the future!
A Prophet's Distress
The following was written
during the Kosovo conflict in 1999, with the Doomsday clock vision in
This is one event the author
deeply does not wish to occur, yet has the overwhelming
sense it must. Every attempt to piece together a different future geo-political
scenario, even using many-faceted angles, always seems to gravitate
to this outcome.
Every attempt to deceive the mind against such deeply disturbing possibilities
fails and invariably leads to the soberingly dark, gut-wrenching, quivering
anvil positioned in the pit of the stomach.
Wishing it were simply some fantastic illusion of catastrophe that
belongs in a tabloid, escapism suddenly seems the rational alternative
Instinctually sensing the manner and magnitude of what the human race
will soon experience is a burden no human deserves. It is painful; distressing;
How do they do it? Walk around, doing their jobs, living their lives
in a daze, annoyed at seeming pettiness. Don't they know what's going
to happen? I want to tell them. Perhaps they don't want to know; delusion
is far less painful.
Watching the vehicles roar by. Pedestrians robotically contributing
whatever their resident society demands of them.
Can they not see it?
Looking up at the sky. A magical blue interspersed with 3-D cotton
clouds and contrails with golden rays of sunshine beaming across the
horizon. Close my eyes and allow the sun's warmth to permeate the eyelids.
Sympathetically observing yet connected with these life-suppressed
bodies seen moping to and fro, I compassionately
connect almost in a state of suspended animation.
A tear appears, joined with a slight smile.
Always committed to the truth; it cannot be denied, but sometimes the
To much dismay, the pieces of the puzzle are now coming together. The
casino-style slot machine reels spin as the values surely and methodically
lock in place revealing their given values. The last few reels complete
their final spin until the last one stops. The variables and odds suddenly
become written in stone.
Morbidly gazing at the halted numbers in deathly silence, it is clear
the grand solution to the quasi-mathematical puzzle has been unlocked
and must now play itself out.
The name of this puzzle is sensed deep down but nevertheless elusive
to billions, has now been solved.
That name of that puzzle is World War Three.
Chapter 12: World War Three
During the Cold War we faced
the constant specter of nuclear annihilation. It may seem like a safer
world now that the U.S.S.R. is history, but the opposite is true. Russia
is disorganized and it has socially and economically collapsed, practically
being run by the mafia. They are currently in a political crisis which
may lead to another strong-arm dictatorship. It
could be Putin who will strengthen through 2005, though there is someone
who comes after him.
It is shockingly following the same path as 1920's Germany,
which indicates a new form of nationalism could arise, forming a new
military challenge to the U.S. Shortly after Yeltsin's resignation a
new military doctrine was announced lowering the threshold for the first
use of nuclear weapons and proclaiming Russia's intention
to oppose American domination of the international system. The intention
is to ...
"Actively oppose a unipolar world dominated by the United States
as part of its effort to strengthen Russia's position not only in areas
near its borders but also around the world and to be willing to use
its military toward that end. According to the new doctrine, 'the level
and scale of threats [to Russia] is growing,' and it
is for that reason that Moscow must build up its military forces."
The post-cold war era is over.
NATO attacked Yugoslavia, provoking angry tensions from much of the
world directed toward the U.S. On April 12, 1999,
Russia formed an alliance with Yugoslavia illustrated during the Kosovo
conflict, and is one of many steps on the road leading to a global war.
Russia has now moved into a New Axis (or alliance) with China, North
Korea, the African Communist/socialist states, and the radical Islamic
states of the Middle East. They are actively and aggressively
preparing for war just as Germany and Japan did in the 1930s. Ex-Soviet
nuclear material, knowledge and scientists are scattered around the
globe. India and Pakistan recently set off underground
nuclear tests in a show of arms. Shortly after, Russia formed an alliance
with India (which went unnoticed by American reporters).
North Korea is in the throes of famine and is nuclear armed.
Nuclear capable China is beginning to flex its muscles
and has the largest manned army and Navy in the World.
They will undoubtedly become a new powerhouse of the 21st century. NATO
bombed its embassy in Yugoslavia. China currently is preparing for war,
first with Taiwan, then along with a pact with Russia and other radical
states, may go head to head with the U.S. in the coming years.
The massive $50 billion trade surpluses with America are going almost
entirely into a military, weaponry build-up. Fourteen
of its current 18 ICBMs are aimed at the west coast of America. Soon,
thanks in part to the recent nuclear spy thefts, they
will have hundreds -- then thousands.
Iraq and the Middle East are still (as always) on the
edge, and could soon erupt into something quite severe as they suffer
daily bombing. This global war, should it occur, will revolve around
this region and will be tied into resources, namely oil and water. There
are the usual religious and other issues such as Palestine, Islam and
other territorial disputes. It can be expected for Russia and China
at some point to intervene with the flow of oil to the West, provoking
a crisis to which America, which is viewed as an imperialist
bully, will have to respond.
The U.S. military has shrunk and may not be able to
effectively conduct such a comprehensive, major war. Biological weapons
are the new means of mass destruction, and they can be
cooked up in a kitchen by any terrorist nation wanting to teach the
'Great Satan' a lesson.
World tensions and excitability will undoubtedly rise when the global
economy enters a nosedive beyond 2000 and
political tensions mount; it will take only
a light trigger to set off a serious world conflict. At some point some
will obviously take it as an opportunity to settle old grudges. It is
in such an environment that nations rise up against one another. What
will rogue nations have to lose in attacking their foes (or us) when
millions of their own are dying of starvation and disease? WWIII is
nearly inevitable whether it happens in 2004, 2006, 2012 or 2025. But
we do have the power to prevent this from happening. According to the
Howe & Strauss book, The Fourth Turning, based
on generational cycles, we are due for an era of total war in the next
20 years or so.
It may be a necessary to endure a catastrophe so devastating
so as to make us beat our swords into plowshares and say "Never
Again." After such an event and societal re-construction, we then
can start anew, ushering in a new global golden age. Maybe this is the
long-awaited "Great Purification."
Prelude to WWIII: 1990's Russia
VS 1920's Germany
We will never learn. History
has a striking tendency to repeat itself over and over in regular cycles.
While the details are never the same, the overall rhythms
of social and national events recycle themselves in a pattern as predictable
as the seasons.
Though the methods used to determine these cycles are open to different
interpretations by social historians, a clear pattern emerges from the
underlying forces showing eerie parallels to what we witnessed 70 years
All indications say the situation in Russia will get worse before it
gets better, at least to any significant degree. The current and ongoing
chaos is certain to result in a tired people yearning for a new purpose
and dictator-style nationalism in the coming years. Like 1920's Germany,
it wishes to regain power and influence in the global
theater. This would create a new paradigm in the global
power structure and initiate a possible historically unprecedented global
crisis. Should a situation emerge, it will be in conjunction with India
and China, among others.
Russia also faces a loss of borders with native Russians forced to
be ethnic foreigners in ex-Soviet satellites led by incompetent
leaders. With the recent Kosovo crisis, an intense opposition to NATO
and the U.S. has arisen. Since the end of the Cold War, Western policy
toward Russia has been a textbook case on how to drive a people to Fascism.
Almost everything we've done to Russia repeats what the foolish Western
Allies did to Germany after WWI. That, plus the depression, put Hitler
in power. Below are some chilling parallels between the two nations,
which demonstrates what may lie ahead:
1990's Russia Follows 1920's
From around the 1870's
on, Germany felt the overwhelming "need" to
keep its military modern and powerful due to insecurity and potential
challenge from its European neighbors. While a relatively peaceful time,
the tensions mounted, which ultimately led to the Great War known as
WWI. Germany suffered a bitter defeat without really losing the battle;
it was an unfinished war. It lost its status as a great power and was
forced to succumb to the punishing Versailles Treaty.
Woodrow Wilson told the Germans in 1918 it wasn't the people he detested
– it was their system. He also promised it would be a just peace.
Under the resulting peace agreement, Germany lost land to Poland and
millions of Germans suddenly became ethnic minorities in badly run countries
where they were second-class citizens.
A country in shambles and without national purpose, Germany entered
the Depression in the 1930's. Fed up with
the Weimar Republic, it voted Hitler into power. Under a massive military
buildup and strongly recovering economy, Germany was
once again a powerhouse, and proud of it. It became, once again, a rejuvenated,
conquering empire dwarfing the might of the Allies it
had lost to some two decades previous. We all know what happened next.
Since the 1950's, the Soviet
Union felt the "need" to build up its military as a challenge
from the United States. This Cold War too was a relatively
peaceful time, even while tensions remained high. It eventually "lost"
this war by dissolving in 1991. But like Germany in 1919, it was an
We said to the Russians exactly what Wilson said about Germany: We
don't have a problem with the Russian people; we just detested the Soviet
system. We said the transition to a democratic, market economy would
be best. After the hyperinflation of the early 1990's, market reforms
were attempted. The result was a near total economic collapse in 1998,
which they've been unable to pull out of. Living standards dropped,
criminals flourished, and honest people starved.
Russia's gross national product is now close to five percent of the
United States' GNP and going backward. It is in a meltdown situation.
Who do they blame for their troubles? The U.S., Westerners and the free
market reforms they perceive were imposed.
Seeing how this pattern is unfolding, is it not reasonable to expect
a very high likelihood of a future situation resembling WWII? But this
time there is much more firepower.
Chapter 13: Criticism from
readers, and responses
Here are a few critical letters
from readers received after an e-messages to subscribers on the Internet
while writing this book. Sorry, but Daniel must at least attack some
misconceptions, and the demanding of impossible expectations of "perfection",
and they are many. It's not easy being a prophet/angel. Some of the
topics deal with subjects discussed in later chapters, so consider it
a precognitive insight into material to be read later.
One reader sent this:
"I have a real problem
with economic and political analysis being made based largely on biblical
interpretation. The Book of Revelation for example is so subject to
multiple interpretation, with some writers saying it points to future
events and other writers saying it has already been fulfilled in the
past, that I wouldn't want to base any economic and political analysis
on it. And I am tired of the gloom and doom typically due to such biblical
analysis, plus the constant attempts to do date-setting on when some
event is supposed to occur, whether it be the mark of the beast, Y2K
computer crashes, world war 3, etc. I prefer to (and do) look more directly
at what is going on in politics and the economy to analyze same."
J, your concerns are actually misconceived and not applicable
to anything Daniel has said in the past; I actually agree with you whole-heartedly.
You must remember at all times that I do not, have not,
and will not base any "analysis" based strictly on the Bible,
except that which has been unfilled. The vast majority of
Biblical prophecy HAS been fulfilled, as is shown in Section 7.
The economic and strategic analyses and "prophecies" you
read herein in this book are not based on the typical method popularized
in recent times. You have never seen me attempt to link WWIII or Y2K
or "mark of the beast" with Biblical prophecy, nor the economy
in any way, particularly prior to 2000, while having utterly no knowledge
of Biblical concepts.
This may come as a surprise to some, but the prophecies in Daniel and
John's book of Revelation has been fulfilled as well –
almost 2000 years ago. Daniel is not here to alert anyone of a "7-year
tribulation," where an "Antichrist" and beast take over
where the reconstruction of a Jewish temple takes place,
with a Rapture, etc. And WWIII actually has NOTHING to with Biblical
prophecy, although many believe it does. "666" and the "Beast/Antichrist"
was actually the Roman emperor Nero before A.D. 70. They
also experienced the "tribulation" prior to A.D.
70 and it was actually 3.5 years, not 7. You can read all about this
in further chapters.
The insights Daniel has received in his 21st-century
return are actually NEW revelations, concerning Iraq, Fourth Turning
etc. concerning the end of this age, and almost all of Biblical prophecy
concerns the end of the last age, almost two millennia
ago, which ended with the destruction of the Jewish temple. In a sense
this is a continuation of scriptures and filling in of gaps which Daniel
is here to inscribe.
The only thing that remains of Biblical prophecy is the END; a small
handful of New Testament prophecies of the coming of the Son of Man.
And a few sentences in Daniel 12. That's essentially it! The rest is
history. Daniel has returned to witness this End –
of the Age; the Church age, and the age of Pisces. The vision of the
end has already been given to Daniel: The Day of the Lord; Second Advent;
coming of the Son of Man. This is not tired old speculation, but REALITY
issued by God to His servant Daniel.
But this has been determined not through Biblical studies and elaborate
theories, as I was ignorant of all such concepts prior to 2000, but
from actual, profound visions given to Daniel during the awakening happening
now. I do not speculate regarding these matters, but have been given
the objective bottom line. God would not send Daniel back to engage
in such nonsensical trivia and mindless speculation; it is much too
important from the perspective of an angel of God.
On date setting: I agree we should not firmly date set based on scriptures,
especially the Second Coming. With one exception: when angelified Daniel
actually receives from the Creator a date in which something is to occur,
unless we manage to avert it. I do not know the date of the Second Coming,
for example. It could be 2012. Or it could be 2018, or later.
Neither I, nor any other human or angel, knows. But the
purpose of prophecy at all times is to induce warning, in order to perhaps
change the future. We indeed can alter the course of history and the
doom-and-gloom future, at least to a certain degree.
But remember that the dawn of new and glorious ages always involve birth
I am on your side with regard to the continual speculation that takes
place with regard to this respect in terms of Biblical prophecy. But
don't you think God would give Daniel an edge in visions regarding the
future? For his return? Of course God would. Daniel's not here simply
to witness and be left in the dark, but to take part.
I don't place ultimate authority on scriptures, but the fresh, divine
visions received thus far – from God, my authority. And the prophetic
visions since 1999 have in fact been coming true, 100%! More on this
topic in Section 7.
Let's further expand from this letter from Charles,
"Well, if someone has
to suffer, better you than me I guess (lol). I agree 100% with your
views on religion and spirituality. However religion fills the social
needs of people -- their need to belong to a group and to share the
beliefs of the group. So anyone that seeks a more enlightened view of
the world is going to travel a difficult path, the road less traveled,
so to speak. Speaking of predictions about the economy, could you be
a little more specific about what will happen and when it will happen?
There are still quite a few of us that haven't overcome our baser needs
yet. Thanks for your messages and your trials and tribulations on our
I am here to suffer, and serve
you all, and glad to.
The gate is narrow indeed, with respect to the road less traveled,
for those seeking the highest level of spiritual growth, but more people
must take the trek, if they ever wish to return to the higher realms.
Speaking of the economy, a further note indeed with
regard to details.
Mike's letter raised this issue. There is no way under God's sun that
He will allow Daniel to allow ALL details of the economy to be revealed
in a divine, prophetic fashion. It's simply not relevant for the mission.
If I were to attempt to speculate on minute "details," there
would never be a chance in Heaven or Hell that I could
ever be 100% correct, unless God gave this information. No human ever
has been able to do so. Nor any Biblical prophet; they did not deal
with such details, they were grander in vision, as is Daniel. Nor does
any angel know all such details. Now, a general guideline?
That I can give.
You see, my site began in early 1998 as an economic analysis site dealing
with a rough outline of the future based on what I sensed from the original
Doomsday Clock vision of 1997. I did not expect I would become the return
of Daniel in the meantime. Yet it happened shortly before Y2K after
I had been saying for quite some time it could be a potential disaster.
The ignorant, unenlightened person under such circumstances would rashly
dismiss me as a "false prophet" under such a circumstance.
Yet those who understand what Biblical-style prophecy is really about
would be calling Daniel the truest prophet on earth. For they understand
that the most successful prophecy is NOT one that is fulfilled, but
altered through warning and active intervention. The future is not written
in stone; it is fluid and constantly changing, and all of have the power
to change things, and are constantly doing so through our thoughts and
actions. The outcome of Y2K was altered. We can change the prospect
of WWIII as well.
The first of the "visions from God" happened just before
the 1999 awakening and endowment of the Holy Spirit. It was of the outcome
of the Y2K computer crisis; a dream indicating it to become a non-event.
I had been warning otherwise on the site for more than a year at the
time. But the divine vision came true, then God awakened me, as that
was actually the unaware first portion of the mission: simply to issue
a warning, details be damned. Do you understand? Well, many will not.
See, we must differentiate that which occurred before the awakening,
and after. Everything that has occurred after has indeed been visions
with a "100% accuracy rate" I suppose, however, that some
people cannot ever perceive this, as they dwell in the bliss of ignorance
and popular opinion.
The answer to the rough outline of the future of the economy is mentioned
throughout this book.
The next absurd letter I received
was very short:
"Who's going to win next
years Super bowl? I'd like to place a large bet on it."
Again here is someone "asking
for a sign," which is tied into Mike's and others' perceptions
of a Biblical prophet and concerns ethical questions. It is ridiculous
to respond to such a message. Ask an angel to pray to God for the outcome
of ... a sports game, so we can all profit from it? Only
an evil and adulterous generation would demand such a sign.
My words and deeds are sufficient proof of my identity, as the 100%
accurate divine visions received thus far have been. Enough said.
After reading the above letters, understand now why Daniel would ask
them to unsubscribe? It's a drain on energy. It really is. But always
remember I've been aligned to truth, that's all that matters, but understand
not all will ever accept this. I understand. I will never lie to you,
nor ever be deluded. That's a promise made by Daniel to you in the name
Chapter 14: Economic analysis of spring 2000 crashes, imminent recession
over the past three years on the Internet, since spring,
1998, will have remembered that the general thesis regarding the economic
portion, long before I was awakened as Daniel, forecasted
a future, but not imminent, recession,
conceivably depression as properly defined, of historic degree at the
end of the 90's bull market and bubble.
At the time, of course, it was mocked by many for being
too pessimistic, especially considering the general euphoria of economic
conditions at the time. The question of the economy's slide into oblivion
was simply then a matter of determining its timing (roughly) and magnitude.
Ironically, I had stopped studying the economy and failed to publicly
cover the long-expected economic collapse previously
covered around early summer, 2000, just as financial and economic conditions
began changing for the worse, spiraling out of control for the next
six months, finally fulfilling all previous forecasts.
Obviously this was due to becoming awakened as a prophet and transformed
into an actual holy angel of God, and something of this degree dramatically
alters the focus of attention, as it would for anyone.
Some have curiously pondered, "What do angels have to do with
economics?" Note that I first began publicly writing merely as
a typical person fascinated by how the world works, cause and
effect and how everything fit together through various cycles, strategic
events, the future and mass psychology. This naturally is what economics
is about: attempting to understand these larger, interacting
forces, and in a modern civilization this involves the
study of conditions which can easily be measured with charts and numbers.
Finally, by spring 2001, the economy began its rapid descent, along
with historic stock market losses, so it was necessary therefore to
at least give a general outline and stance as to where the economy was
hereafter traveling. This is a version sent out
to subscribers in late March.
At the time of this analysis, March 23, 2001, sent out to hundreds
of subscribers, the market had seriously declined over the past couple
of weeks, fulfilling a prophetic hunch I received, and
mentioned publicly on March 6th, 2001,
author has not studied the economy in any way since spring 2000, and
was not covered except when divine revelations were received. This should
occur shortly, before the book is completed. I have not even followed
the news for months. Prophetically, I've strongly sensed something dramatic
to happen for this spring. This is not yet known, but could be a market
crash, or outbreak of military hostilities in the Middle East."
(Listbot archive #108, March 6) (I had also mentioned something profound
to occur during the significant period of Passover, April 14-24, during
which time Daniel would be praying on a mountain top.)
As you can see, within only two weeks, the stock market underwent devastating
declines, and by March 23 the Dow dropped from 10,800 to around 9,400.
There also followed much violence in the Middle East,
and it was also the same time as the incident
regarding the American spy plane that collided with a Chinese jet, initiating
a troublesome diplomatic situation.
In spring of 2000, at the height of bullishness in the tech-heavy NASDAQ,
I proclaimed the imminence of a massive bear market in
stocks, with the tech sectors to be particularly hard hit with the NASDAQ
leading the way. Well, within a couple of months the
markets crashed with historical losses, and one year later
the NASDAQ had plummeted by a whopping 60% from its peak
of around 5000, to 1900, making this one of the greatest bear markets
of all time, ranking up there with the likes of 1929. This is a natural
result of the greatest bull market of all time during the 1990's (properly
The spring 2000 Merrill Lynch tech index stood at 1000; spring 2001:
The Morgan Stanley tech index peaked at 120 in spring
2000, tumbling to 20
one year later.
Obviously at the time of this writing the world had entered a widespread
bear market, with the S&P 500 down 25% from peak and
the Dow 20 percent or more from its record high of 11,722.98 on Jan.
14, 2000 (which Daniel had told everyone was the final top.) The Dow
would have entered its first bear market since 1990 as it closed below
9,378.38. Globally, aggregate stocks in general were down 25% from the
But is this the end, a bottom? No, fasten your seat belts; there's
more to come, although this may have been a short-term
Historically P/E levels for stocks in normal times range from 8 to
20 to one, and when exceeding 22, used to mean an imminent
bear market. At the peak of the tech mania, the NASDAQ
aggregate P/E stood at 75, even 245 at one point. Even after losing
60% of its value over one year, it still stands at a very overpriced
45 to one! Even the S&P 500, whose peak P/E was an historically
unprecedented 35, in the midst of the spring 2001 bear market, remains
very high at 25 to 1.
The psychological mood of the investing public prior to summer 2000
was that of many misguided people who thought that "this time it's
different." Well, it was not different from any past manias, despite
the supposed promise of ever-increasing potential riches in the much-touted
"New Economy", which became a fad in a mad,
greedy rush to get rich quick. Many did, but many more got poor very
Although the Internet and subsequent boom it helped
fuel, and other recent innovations in tech sectors that have revolutionized
the economy in past years will continue to grow around
the world in coming years, the place where it all began, the U.S.,
is effectively near an initial saturation point with regard to such
proliferation of PCs and other New Economy inventions. Since the late
1990's economic boom was significantly tied to such new technologies,
the current and coming bust likewise revolves around excesses, for they
have become intertwined; a New Economy recession will result from
a New Economy boom.
Initially, when the mad rush to the Internet began several
years ago, thousand and thousands of venture capitalists flooded the
web scene, funding glitzy web start-ups with the deluded promise of
never-ending riches due to e-commerce and banner ads. Yet only a couple
of years later, it is these very businesses that suffered
the greatest carnage. The majority of web businesses started with continual
losses, which investors had faith to continue funding, all based on
the HOPE that one day they would turn a profit. Well, by spring 2001,
even the Internet blue-chip ventures such as Amazon.com
are barely keeping afloat, on the brink of virtual bankruptcy.
And this was during a record economic boom! Imagine how bad the shakedown
will be in the midst of a worldwide recession or depression, which as
of this writing was imminent.
The main sectors of the Internet to benefit or be transformed
by the Internet revolution will be financial services,
entertainment, health care, education, information providers and government
services. Until broadband technology improves radically and universally,
the Internet will lag in its potential to rapidly explode
in innovative uses and functionality. Some telecommunication sectors
relating to such issues have the potential to be the next miracle growth
winners. Look toward nanotechnology for the long term, for it will radically
alter society, but we shall not see this for many years to come. Fuel
cell technology is also the next best area of innovation.
Since summer of 2000 the U.S. economy had begun spiraling
downward in virtually every conceivable way following repeated interest
rate increases by the Federal Reserve, who went too far by raising rates
a half percentage point in spring of 2000; these effects take about
six to nine months before they work their way into the
economy. That was the nail in the coffin, but not realized at the time.
By the time Greenspan saw the writing on the wall, it was too late.
After sensing the deterioration of the economy, he then
began reducing interest rates in a dramatic fashion in the first three
months of 2001, three times for a total drop of 1.5 percent, to 5 percent,
and more is on the way. However, the steep slide in conditions as we
entered 2001 exceeds the ability of such remedies to
prevent what nature had started; the dominion of mortal affairs ultimately
rest with God.
If it hasn't already begun, a recession is a 100% certainty in the
2001/2002 time frame. With these skillful rate reductions, along with
Bush's tax-cut proposal, should it be passed, though
it would have to be much more aggressive than that currently proposed,
we may be able to stop the slide into full-blown depression, which would
last until 2004 in a worst-case scenario. The effects of the interest
rate reductions will not take effect for about nine months,
and in the meantime we would already be in recession, for the forces
already underway are beyond the control of standard monetary policy
and nitpicking fiscal remedies.
In a likely scenario, we will experience a very sharp but somewhat
brief recession (which the media will over-blow in significance, creating
a panic, cautionary mood in the minds of consumers) with anemic growth
at best and recovery for a year or so with dismal stagnation, to be
followed by another very sharp recession around 2004, which will certainly
eliminate Bush's chances of re-election in 2004 to zero. ("It's
the economy, stupid!") However, Daniel has sensed that the crises
of that future time may be used and/ or manipulated by
the Bush administration to encourage re-election hopes during a dramatic
confrontation with Iraq.
Consumer sentiment has mirrored the rise and fall of the NASDAQ
due to the wealth effect. In the last few months of 2000, consumer confidence
and spending took a sustained and alarming nose-dive from a very high
140 to 100, and will
continue to fall as the stock market tanks, for they feed upon themselves.
Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy's activity,
and any drop in spending means a drop in economic activity.
Normally, traditionally, the prices of stocks bore a somewhat irrelevant
relationship to activity in the economy, but now things are different:
The household savings rate has approached zero (actually
in negative territory) from the historic average of 6%, mostly because
the public has effectively replaced traditional saving by plowing into
the stock market. Historically the percentage of people invested in
the stock market is 15 to 20%, but what has happened over the past decade
was a dramatic (and dangerous) shift, where an unprecedented 50% are
now stock owners, taking naive faith in stock ownership
as a means of safe and guaranteed means of gains without significant
risk. The dip in the savings rate has also been fueled
by a massive increase in credit issuance to consumers,
most of whom have never learned the lessons of a prolonged bear market
or prevalence of risk management. The coming years will see many lessons
learned by many people who joined the herd, and will be turned off stocks
forever by the ravages of what may be the greatest bust of all time.
Household net worth actually declined in 2000, for the first time since
1955, the first year such records were recorded.
Weekly jobless claims since spring of 2000 steadily climbed,
from 250,000 to 380,000 by the end of the year. The help wanted index
also dropped precipitously during this time, to the level of 1994. GDP
growth, after stunning gains for years hovering around 5%, slowed in
the 3rd quarter of 2000 to 2%, and the fourth quarter to 1%.
Do not be surprised to see a negative growth rate for first
quarter 2001, with the recession underway.
Where should the market lows be expected? As of this writing, we should
see continued weakness in all stock markets, especially during spring,
and the Dow should be near 7500-8500 by years end, although this is
not a 100%, prophetic certainty. The NASDAQ still has
a much further to drop, and will at least reach 1000 before the possibility
of hitting bottom and attendant cyclical rebound occurs.
But do not be surprised to see it dip to 500. Of course, there will
always be short-term rallies to give the false impression of a bottom,
but the longer-term cyclical trend is down for the next
year or two. A significant decline can be expected around September
through November, as well as spring 2002, which stands a good chance
of becoming a major bottom.
We are about to enter the cold winter of economic calamity. Are
you dressed warmly?
Chapter 15: Why I moved to
Boise, Idaho: Safe haven
The following is an account
of my personal relocation.
After living in two countries and five cities in as many states, Daniel
moved in October 1998 to Boise, Idaho in anticipation of the potential,
coming disasters he anticipated.
Originally born and raised in Canada, I fled south many years ago to
southern Florida to enjoy sunshine and paradise in the Gulf Coast city
of Fort Myers. It was a hollow paradise, as one might
imagine: overcrowded, low wages, alarmingly high levels of crime and
violence, and an almost nonexistent sense of community.
In 1996, in search of better pastures, I rounded up my belongings and
drove west to Las Vegas, Nevada, for a brief one-month
stay. Sin City was hardly appealing (besides, it's just too damn hot)
so the drive continued to Seattle, Washington. It is
a very nice city -- if you can tolerate the rain. There are many high-tech,
high-wage jobs for those with skills and many homeless shelters for
those without homes. Seattle has the best public transportation system
I have seen, yet the most congested roads as well.
Being a West Coast city, it is a strange combination of uppity liberalism
mixed with conservatism. Being of no particular political persuasion
myself (That's right: I'm neither "right-wing" nor "left-wing"
as I see major flaws and appeals in both sides and tend to be a combination
of apathy, pragmatism -- "whatever works" -- and, perhaps,
libertarianism. An angel is neutral, except to truth), it was a refreshing
change from the hard-core Southern conservatism previously experienced.
The whole Seattle situation and its mindset became stale, promoting
another move to its smaller brother down south: Portland, Oregon. Portland
is a very pleasant city to live in. Its motto is "The city that
works." Even more socialist-minded than Seattle (and a tacky form
of socialism at that), it is a "people city." It tries to
continually maintain and improve itself. Its climate is very mild: it
rarely dips below freezing in winter. With all the rain it gets, it's
not at all surprising it is called the "suicide capital of the
U.S." Talk about a depressing place to live; if you want to be
constantly in the doldrums, move to Portland!
After doing much research, observing the recent global crises unfold,
and witnessing the vision of the Doomsday Clock, I began to sense by
late 1997 that a major economic recession or even depression was looming
on the horizon. Then after a few months of studying the Y2K computer
bug and its implications, with all these other variables, I was convinced:
the house of cards was coming down eventually, though not necessarily
due to Y2K; I just initively KNEW something in the future, short or
long term, would happen. Being a natural skeptic, it took awhile to
become absolutely certain of this disaster's inevitability and magnitude.
Once it had sunk in, I was compelled to become a "survivalist"
(at least for a time).
The assumption that the food and essentials we all take for granted
will always be available dissolved as I contemplated the vast complexities
of our automated economy and how Y2K could bring it to a standstill.
I knew any large city would become a hellish place in a hurry without
power, water or sewage. However, I had already entertained the possibilities
of moving to a small, safer area; this was merely the trigger. Being
economically tied to Portland, I decided to prepare a site near the
West Coast in the forest and began building a log cabin as a sanctuary
to flee to and ride out any collapse, should it occur. I started stockpiling
large amounts of food and supplies at this location as well. Unfortunately,
in the summer of 1998, somebody found and stole the whole load of it.
(Oh, well, at least someone has been well fed).
At this point I realized the ultra-survivalist approach, the type so
often reported in the media, was simply not the way to go. The rational
approach would be community awareness; your neighbors can make or break
you in a crisis. However, 99% of members in most communities will not
prepare, as shown by the lack of preparation by hurricane victims. Not
many will listen to "those lunatics who say the sky is falling"
and therefore make preparations. The dilemma I then faced was whether
I should stay in the big city and risk getting caught up in a maelstrom
of humanity -- 2.2 millions souls -- or, once again, move; besides,
Daniel gets restless if residing in one place for too long.
Fortunate enough to be mobile, well experienced at moving and without
any significant ties to Portland, I headed east to Boise, Idaho. So
why is this region one of the best safe havens in the continental U.S.?
Community, Social Harmony
This ranks as one of the top
reasons Boise and Idaho are so appealing. Crime is so
low it seems almost nonexistent in this city of 150,000 (by far the
safest I've seen compared to all the other cities I've
lived in). Each year there are only two or three murders, and they are
usually among transients (there aren't many homeless here either). One
can actually walk the streets at night without fear. Even in a complete
breakdown situation, it is very unlikely people would riot, loot and
pillage. There are not even any ghetto sections in the city.
Unlike the majority of American cities, there exists a strong sense
of community. Social cohesion, stability and harmony are dominant and
can be partly linked to the fact that this is one of the most conservative
states in the union with a strong presence of a church-going population
with such sects as the Mormons residing here as well. (You know how
they love storing food.)
Idahoans work together and help one another out. This is the hallmark
of a solid community. For example, a few months after moving there,
my car broke down near downtown at 12:30 A.M. My destination was a quarter-mile
away so I decided to get in a "workout" and push it by hand
the rest of the way. During this 20-minute, exhausting journey, 90%
of passing cars stopped and asked if I needed help pushing it! (About
nine drivers did so) This is highly unusual in modern America, and was
a delightful experience. In Florida, or any other place for that matter,
I would have been not merely ignored, but robbed!
There is a high respect for personal differences and individuality
in Idaho, contrary to its ill-founded image as an intolerant, "hate-state,"
with Arian Nation's neo-Nazi residence up north in the Panhandle. Generally,
people seem to be happy, content and friendly.
In addition to being a small,
undensely populated city, Boise is in the middle of nowhere. It is 500
miles from the nearest major metropolitan area (Seattle, Portland, Salt
Lake City) with only small towns, desert and wilderness in between.
With the exception of the Hanford storage facility in the state of Washington,
there are no nuclear reactors nearby. The concern here is the potential
for nuclear meltdowns in plants. There are also no significant military
targets here. Aside from a standard National Guard unit, and small air
force base, there are no (known) ICBM silos or anything strategic worth
destroying should World War III occur.
Mild Climate, Geology
In the Boise river valley
winter temperatures rarely go below 15 or 20 degrees F. in winter; uncomfortable,
but tolerable with proper dress and minimal heating. The region is very
arid, receiving only a few inches of rain per year, but is nestled next
to vast, wet, forested mountains to the north that shed their moisture
down south into the desert in the form of clear streams. Spring and
fall are beautiful. Summer is somewhat hot, with temperatures hovering
around 90 degrees, but won't kill you (it's a dry heat).
We don't have to worry about the extremes of Mother Nature in this
region; there are no hurricanes, floods or tornadoes. The high desert
sits in the intermontane region of the Rockies, well away from continental
plates and major faults. There have been mild earthquakes in the past,
but they are very rare. As far as critters go, there are many flies
in the summer, but it beats mosquitoes.
Natural Resources, Food, Water
Surrounding Boise (a/k/a "Cowtown")
are millions of acres of potatoes and livestock (beef, pork, chicken).
As the experience of the Irish illustrated, one can be nutritionally
sustained for extended periods on little more than milk and potatoes
(heck, throw in a steak for good measure and you're set!)
As previously mentioned, it is arid here, but through gravity-fed irrigation
dykes running off the mountain streams, agricultural irrigation
needs are naturally met. The Northwest relies heavily on hydroelectric
power (dams) to supply its energy needs. Unlike coal-powered plants,
which require the railroad system to be functional, and nuclear power,
with all its potential problems, hydropower is not at risk from supply-chain
problems; it is "free" and renewable. There is also lumber
-- lots of firewood as Idaho has the largest forest in the continental
Although I consciously thought the reason to move to Boise was simply
its safe location, there came the ultimate reason: to be angelically
awakened, as I found out later it is a gathering place for angels, and
is conducive to spirituality. Moreover, God deems it necessary for Daniel
to survive and be protected in order to witness his prophecies come
to fruition at the end of the days.
Is this THE safest place to live? Maybe not, but it certainly ranks
at the top. Will I ever move again? Can't seem to stay still, but it
sure feels like home, like Jerusalem two and a half millennia ago ...
Chapter 17: A Peak Oil Scenario
Peak Oil phenomenon – the peak of the entire planet's oil production
– is very real. It is not something conjured up by fantasy freaks
or doomsayers who have something to profit from it. It is instead based
on overwhelming scientific data, evidence and conjecture and analysis
by CONSERVATIVE geologists, physicists, knowledgeable investment bankers,
is an observable FACT, for instance, that the U.S. reached peak oil
discoveries in the 1930's and domestic peak oil production by 1970 and
has been declining ever since, and to this day production is 35% lower
than in 1970. This is evidenced by our reliance on foriegn oil since
roughly that time. Global production will also peak for reasons that
are similarly scientifically based and logical, following a bell curve,
very shortly. In fact, most oil-producing and exporting nations outside
OPEC have peaked long ago, and their collective production is in terminal
decline. In other words, there exists very little “spare capacity”
consume six barrels of oil for every one we discover. In fact, global
discovery rates peaked in the 1960s. There is only a certain amount
of oil in the ground, and we now have a pretty good idea of how much
is "cheap" or economically scalable and producible oil at
prices which will make oil-dependent, industrialized nations function
smoothly, and with expected growth in GDP.
are facts, not personal opinion or blind speculation.
of any oil well, field or country, and collectively the globe, follows
a bell curve ... always has, always will. Once the easy-to-get oil and
cheap oil is extracted, about 50%, then it becomes increasingly more
difficult and expensive to extract the remaining. Production declines
steadily, and the remaining becomes more difficult and expensive per
barrel to extract.
oil is not a new concept; it has been around since 1956, when M.K. Hubbert
published his famous bell curve on discovery and production rates for
the years ahead. He was derided at the time as a pessimist and doomsayer,
yet he was right on target. U.S. production peaked, then declined, from
1970 onward, year by year, every year.
vast majority of oil on the planet has long since been discovered, and
we are pumping oil from these global reservoirs at a rate of 84 million
barrels per day. Production has been meeting demand for all these years,
and at a cheap price – in fact, so cheap it is was the next best thing
to free energy. An entire, never-before-seen affluent society emerged.
It also is but a BLIP in the long march of history – a temporary aberration.
It is not the beginning of some centuries-long ultra-prosperous society,
where “flying cars” are used by the populace, and we colonize Mars,
the near future it will no longer be possible for production to meet
global demand. Global demand is expected to grow to 120 million barrels
per day by 2025, thanks to increasing U.S., Chinese and Indian appetites
for this precious commodity. Yet production will never rise above 90
million barrels per day. In fact, 84 million barrels per day may be
the maximum, meaning we are essentially AT PEAK as I write this.
oil is near, if not already here. The implications of an unbridgeable
gap between supply and demand are extreme, and imminent.
best, educated guesses, using scientific estimates and analysis by many
engaged in full time Peak Oil study, based on known reserves, and using
basic math of how much oil has been extracted and burned since the first
wells were drilled (almost one trillion barrels) project the peak as
imminent, around 2012 or so, while a few say a peak-like plateau began
around 2000, as evidenced by the price of oil having risen several hundred
percent in price since that time. Also, as I write this oil reached
$145 a barrel a few years ago, and is still quite high, due to OPEC
"supply problems," in other words, with production running
at maximum, with demand worldwide continuing to increase. Is it actual
Peak Oil, or another false date? What matters is not the exact timing,
but the reality of Peak Oil. We can speculate until we are blue in the
face, but nobody, not even this angel, knows the exact date of peak,
then decline, though it is obvious that it is "soon."
are in a remarkably similar situation to the Y2K computer bug scare
in the early days of the Internet, 1997. That was the "good old
days" of the Internet. That was also before the age of spam. This
was an issue that was almost entirely debated and studied on this newfound
medium. While there were many unknown variables as to the seriousness
of the problem, many were convinced that this could or would be a societal
disaster if not taken seriously, and the worst-case scenarios featured
a shutdown of the power grid due to the embedded chip problem. The issue
was SIMULTANEITY of potential breakdowns, cascading upon each other.
But again, no one knew the reality of what we would face at the 2000
rollover. At the time, the macro-implications were not well understood,
but those who studied the problem in depth came to the conclusion that
it would at least cause widespread disruptions and a recession. At first
it was ridiculed, then violently attacked, then held to be self-evident;
then it was SOLVED.
1997 and 1998 (when I first began writing publicly and covering Y2K)
there was widespread denial and wishful thinking as to what we faced
when the computers rolled over to 00. This was the first time in history
we had an accurate date for a POTENTIAL crisis. Many of the most popular
doomsayers and alarmists and pessimistic programmers were giving dire
assessments. But most people laughed at the concept and anyone who would
dare say we were facing a serious problem. My website provided a dire
but well-presented argument for a potential collapse, based on the best
and most respected "evidence" we at the time possessed. The
evidence seemed to be overwhelming. However, it turned out that many
of these gurus and programmers were left flabbergasted that virtually
NOTHING happened at the rollover: no bank runs, no recession, and no
power failures. Many of these Y2K experts and gurus were then derided
and ridiculed and written off, and fell from the public radarscope,
tail between legs, never to be heard from again.
who studied the scope and complexity of the problem still look back
at those days, disillusioned or flabbergasted that nothing happened.
The vast majority of the population never actually took Y2K seriously,
(that dang "YK" thang!) even when it increasingly made headlines
and lengthy articles in the mainstream press, such as Time and Newsweek
and the Wall Street Journal. Some still resent the fact that they invested
for a stock market collapse by 1999, or in gold, or stored food and
water against seemingly certain disruptions. Some still ask themselves,
was it all just hype by profit-meisters about a non-serious problem,
or was it also due to the fact that Government and corporations finally
took the threat seriously, and threw money at it (an estimated half
a trillion dollars worldwide)? It was probably a combination; not quite
as serious as first thought, AND that the dire warnings were heeded.
It is my contention, however, that those who prepared at the time, will
have to continue preparing at some future time, and should continue
preparing, getting out of the stock market, and debt, and becoming as
self-reliant as possible.
was an embryonic prophet at the time, and embryonic angel. Little did
I realize I was engaging in classic prophecy in the truest sense of
the word: ISSUING WARNING AND STATING THE OBVIOUS! Yet consciously I
was just another schmuck who made it a full-time obsession. True prophecy
is about issuing a warning to people who will listen, and also intended
for political and economic leaders. The Y2K computer scare was therefore
merely a trial run for my becoming a full-fledged prophet of the Most
High. Now, I did have a visionary dream of Y2K in July 1999 which I
made public at the time to 700 subscribers and on the website which
indicated the rollover would come and go with no problems. However I
did not realize I would soon be awakened as a messenger angel, and I,
as well as my readers, did not take the dream seriously. After all,
who would actually take someone's dream as literal, prophetic
truth? At roughly the same time I became disillusioned and stopped saying
Y2K was a serious threat, and said so publicly, yet I remained firm
in my view and conviction of potential economic collapse and stock market
collapse, along with World War III, which I intuitively knew was coming
in the distant future. At the time, in the pre 9/11 peace of the late
90's, I was derided for writing about a coming global war, and to be
honest I did not know the exact trigger or details. I continued with
economic warnings of a market collapse and imminent recession and WWIII.
I am a Taurus, remember? Stubborn as a bull. The sun never sets on Daniel!
come on, why do you keep bringing up Y2K? That was more than 10 long
years ago! Quit living in the past!"
most of my subscribers followed my site and subscribed during 1998 and
1999, and most were well informed about the Y2K computer threat's potential
to severely disrupt our fragile, modern, industrialized, interdependent
and computerized civilization. The fact that we live in a fragile, overly
complex society never changed. And the warning of the fiat-money-based
house-of-cards debt and bubble-based economy, which has shifted to real
estate in the past few years, stands firm. We will suffer in
the coming years to a degree presently perceived as unimaginable.
the rollover of 2000 I had 800 subscribers, and the website received
a respectable 150,000 hits since March 1998, until the rollover. This
number has catastrophically dwindled since that time to 50 hits per
day and many of these subscribers unsubscribed shortly after I revealed
publicly what had happened to me, namely that the author had ascended
to human angelification, and become a full-blown messenger and prophet;
the e-newsletter subscriber number as of 2005, 7 years after first writing
publicly, has dropped to 450, or about 350 after "email rot"
is accounted for. This happened after I revealed the angelic awakening
on January 20th, 2000. By then Y2K had come and gone, and what I had
to thereafter reveal made hundreds of subscribers roll their eyes in
disbelief. Despite my prophecies thereafter coming to pass with an accuracy
rate similar to Biblical prophecy (if you even believe in prophecy),
with the 2000 stock collapse predicted, and the 2001 recession accurately
forecasted, as well as the global war which came with a 9/11/2001 trigger,
as well as the Bush presidency and Iraq war predicted well in advance,
the concept of an incarnate angel of God thereafter placed me into the
"fringe" category. All that I've been prophesying since these
early days, although once considered too far "out there" to
take seriously, is now (and will be) mainstream. (Again I'm giving you
a brief history, since many of you will forget, yet the Y2K situation
is still fresh in my mind, more than 10 years later, for relevant reasons
to the coming Peak Oil crisis, as I shall explain.)
1998 and 1999 there was no religious material whatsoever on the website,
or Biblical prophecy or topics I once considered "out there"
such as aliens or conspiracy theories. Instead, the site was my best
efforts at an attempt to reach the mainstream, though it never made
the Wall Street Journal, Time or Barrons. At the time I was an agnostic
with atheistic leanings. I don't blame so many people from leaving me
after my revealing to them that I was an angel, because I TOO would
have unsubscribed and called such a person a nut case! There was a time
when I wrote articles for www.gold-eagle.com for gold-bugs and those interested
in the Y2K scare. Now, however, they will not even attempt to publish
any of my material, because it comes from "a self-proclaimed incarnate
angel and modern prophet." Unlike Biblical times when a divine
prophet may have been taken seriously, this is the 21st century; most
are not prepared for a true, modern prophet with divine backing.
would think a true prophet would be taken seriously, but it doesn't
work that way. This very fact will keep me on the "fringes"
and probably out of any best-seller list when the final edition of my
book is published, and I refuse to "alter the story" as one
publisher recommended. For crying out loud, this is basically scripture
quality, in total message! "Change the story" huh? NOT!
there was a time when the Y2K gurus visited the site, including Ed Yardeni,
who I had email contact with, Gary North, who was the ultimate doomsayer,
with a mammoth website, Ed Yourdon, computer programmer and author,
as well as senators Robert Bennet (Utah) and Chris Dodd (Connecticut),
not to mention many reporters who took my message seriously and were
able to spread the word through their newspapers. Many still visit my
site to see what message an angel of God has to reveal. It is always
come on, Daniel, you are resting on your laurels, based on an event
which never happened! Y2K is something we all want to forget!"
good news is that a good percentage have stood with me from the beginning,
through the trials and tribulations, persecution, ridicule, glory, ups
and downs, new divine revelations, etc.
will take seriously the Biblical injunctions that imply to take a prophet
very seriously and heed his warnings. Those who disregard these warnings,
visions and insights are not to be condemned, and I even invited them
to unsubscribe or burn the book. It is perfectly understandable that
so many did so. But more than half stayed with me.
many of you, including mainstream politicians and economists and investors,
are going to take a "self-proclaimed prophet" seriously, especially
one who claims to have had visible wings? Until revealing to you the
fact that I had visible wings for all to see, which I have documented
as accurately as possible, it is my guess that virtually all of you
had never heard of the angelic ascension of a mortal, as happened to
me. In fact, it is truly extremely rare. Or the concocted story of a
deluded nut case!
reason prophets of old had such a remarkable accuracy rate in their
prophecies (such as the destruction of Jerusalem and Israel of old)
is because everyone viewed them as crazy, did NOT listen to them, considered
them a nuisance, and ultimately killed them. Those that listened to
Jesus' supposed warnings to vacate Jerusalem when the sign that Jerusalem
would be "surrounded by armies" and destroyed were few and
far between. They had to have FAITH in Jesus before they could take
his word for it. It was the same thing with Jeremiah and other prophets
who said, "Thus saith the Lord, 'I will utterly sweep everything
off the face of the planet,'" before the Babylonian captivity.
Jesus did not impress everyone with a Ph.D. or his social standing.
His followers had pure faith and trust in his divine message.
prophets of old, who merely said "thus saith the Lord," I
give other, complimentary reasons to believe the messages and warnings
and conclusions I publicly proclaim. I don't seriously expect any of
you to take heed of my warnings if I merely say "thus saith the
Lord" or make public a dire vision or "dream," even though
it is made by an incarnate angel. I do not base any of my modern prophecies
on the Bible, or give false hope of a divine "rapture."
in the case of Y2K, I have backed up seemingly unbelievable conclusions
with logic, current affairs, and second and third opinions by respected
truth-seeking programmers, economists, analysts or scientists. Yes,
Y2K turned out to be a non-event in the end, and those who are not enlightened
to the nature of true prophecy will likewise NOT understand the lessons
and meaning behind this pre-2000 situation. Most who studied Y2K did
not "panic" or do much to prepare, even if they were convinced
there was to be a societal collapse. Some stored food and water and
other supplies, but only a few months’ worth. A few sold everything,
moved to a survivalist or safe location complete with a farmhouse with
solar panels and mules, waiting for what they thought was a sure societal
collapse. It is my contention that those who took the "safe location"
or survivalist route were those who already had survivalist leanings.
The Y2K scare was just a trigger to get them off their duff and take
action. It was a fearful time for many, and at times I even scared myself
silly with my own writings. As an incarnate angel I no longer am afraid,
as I've conquered fear, including that of a societal collapse, and the
prospect of death by starvation.
time we have another dire situation approaching, and the similarity
to events and consequences preceding Y2K are strikingly similar.
is global Peak Oil. The prophetic conclusion is nothing short of the
end of civilization as we know it. Not 100 or 60 or 40 years from now,
but shortly, and certainly within THIS generation.
most of you this is a new concept, as it was when first learning of
Y2K on the Internet. Here are the similarities between Y2K and Peak
1) Widespread denial and delusion
to the (seemingly) simple problem.
2) Mass wishful thinking as
to the solutions (alternatives).
3) Pollyanna "experts,"
politicians and "flat-earth" economists who dismissed Y2K
and now Peak Oil.
4) A scientifically and logically
based and imminent societal and global crisis, with a rough time-frame
as to when said crisis will manifest.
5) Mainstream still in the
6) Pessimistic doomsayers and
survivalists aware of the impending crisis, and beginning to prepare.
7) Lack of political and community
preparation, because lack of macro, viable "solution" to said
crisis, or "faith" that the free market or alternative solutions
will "come to the rescue."
8) Consensus of the "in-the-know
experts" and gurus that we are facing a sure collapse and or/massive
societal disruption and transformation, with no macro solution, "it's
I expect 0% of my readers and subscribers to actually take my divine
visions, such as Starburst 2020 seriously enough to actually take action,
or absorb and come to grips with them emotionally. Chances are most
of you will say, "Wow, interesting, maybe he'll be wrong. Let's
wait 10 years and see; I will not take it seriously." Like Rodney
Dangerfield, "I get no respect!" If you do take action, then
I commend your faith! You will be doing what very few did with the Hebrew
prophets of old.
because most of my readers have lived through Y2K, you will naturally
have the initial inclination to take the "reality" and threat
of Peak Oil with CAUTION. After all, "why prepare AGAIN for something
that may turn out to be a dud? Maybe the doomsayers are wrong!"
of you felt duped by Y2K, and are leery of taking seriously anyone who
says "doomsday" from now on, especially since people have
been saying we will "run out of oil soon," ever since the
first U.S. oil well was drilled. Oil is not going to run out; instead
we will run into a peak and decline in global production, and it is
fairly simple and straightforward to "predict” this. In fact,
the evidence is so plain a third grader can figure it out! It's not
complex algebra or trigonometry. SO simple in fact, that it is overlooked
or brushed off by MOST people. It can't be that simple, can it? Yes,
supply and demand, production, supply and consumption. It doesn't take
a Ph.D. in history or economics or political science to realize that
cheap, abundant oil is the life-blood of virtually every aspect of modern
civilization. Without it, society will come to an immediate halt. With
a 10-15% reduction in supply (production) the economy will be crippled,
and prices will skyrocket. It only took a 5% reduction is supply to
quadruple oil prices in the early 70's, causing an immediate and massive
U.S. recession, "stagflation," shortages and lineups at the
pump. Although this was before my time, many of my readers will remember
the oil shortages and resultant economic dislocations. Now, it may only
be speculation, but a drop of only about 20% may be sufficient to END
civilization as we know it.
the 70's shocks were temporary. What happens, then, when global oil
production declines 3 to 5% per year, FOREVER? Again, it doesn't take
the IQ of an Einstein or a rocket scientist or the wisdom of an incarnate
angel to realize the magnitude and rough scenarios we can piece together,
based on nothing more than logic, common sense, a sense of history,
and a high-school level education or knowledge in economics, the market
and human nature. Not everyone is even aware of the rudimentary knowledge
of Peak Oil, but it is my hope I can at least educate you in the basics,
which anyone with an average intelligence, open mind and a little skepticism
can grasp. Yet, amazingly, due to various reasons, Peak Oil is NOT yet
mainstream, or is dismissed as doom-saying and survivalist/conspiracy
theory, fringe, Art Bell-type of a topic, not worthy of discussion.
I'm telling you that in the coming years Peak Oil interest will skyrocket.
It's the next "new" big thing. It's only a matter of time
until it hits the mainstream. Also, like in the Y2K era, those in authority
in the mainstream press and politicians in a sense CANNOT come forward
with the facts and reality we face, as it would "panic" the
public and financial markets.
it is the very beginning of the end of modern civilization, and there
are NO solutions, beyond limited personal and small community preparation,
and futures speculators wishing to get "rich" in the initial
(and never to decline) spike in "sweet crude oil." The first
wave of speculators and wise investors are already convinced that stocks
will no longer do well, because we are entering a two-decade-long move
to commodities, precious metals (for some) symbolized by scarce resources,
and global economic competition for oil. This is World War Three, a
global fight for dwindling resources. I have been saying this since
1998. No one took me seriously at the time ... well, we are in the early
stages of this global, yet unpredictable, war. The chess pieces are
being moved as we speak. Moreover, the wise "trend-setters"
or contrarians to the still-hyped stock market/mutual fund markets recognize
it is in decline, and as many surmise, FOREVER. Never again will the
Dow Jones Industrial Average reach its all-time high of 11,700, unless
there is massive inflation, and total collapse in the U.S. dollar, in
which case Dow 11,700 will be worthless in real terms.
has been ten or more years since Y2K. You are older and wiser. Consider
the Y2K scare and preparation as a learning lesson and precursor to
the real "main event." If you were a Y2K-knowledgeable preparer,
and had the urge to evangelize the message, began a "Cassandra
project" of community awareness, or spread the word as to the seriousness
of Y2K, you faced many hurdles, denial, wishful thinking, that something
so simple was so serious, and that so few took it seriously. It's time
to dust off those skills you learned once again. Or, if you are new
to my book, this will be a new endeavor to you. Once educated, you may
have the urge to "tell the world!" Some will become depressed
that no one takes their preaching "about this oil doom" seriously,
and many will unfortunately remain in denial, until gasoline, reaches
$10 per gallon, which it will in due time, and it will become necessary
to retrofit the entire nation's gas pumps to read beyond $10 a gallon.
Like Y2K! They are missing an abundance of an extra "0!" HAHA.
By the time gas reaches $10 a gallon, in real, 2010 dollars, the economy
will have collapsed, and the gas companies will be crippled. Where will
they come up with the capital to replace the entire nation's otherwise
perfectly good pumps? It will be interesting to see.
hope the Y2K scare and your knowledge of the issue gave you thick skin
and lessons learned as to what happens when you attempt to "enlighten"
your friends, family, and neighbors to an imminent and serious (but
new and unknown) problem where awareness and collective action and community
preparation are important. This is why many took the survivalist route
during Y2K: they knew that,
A) no one but a few would ever take the problem seriously enough, including
loved ones; therefore they needed to go it alone and "get out of
Dodge City," or
knowing that your neighbors can make or break you in a crisis, engaged
in alarmist scare-mongering with the hopes that someone would actually
listen and prepare. During Y2K there were many successful community
preparation plans started by many local neighborhoods, including police
and fire departments, and largely out of public view. The U.S. military
was also prepared for potential disruptions. By the time the survivalists
had prepared, and those who were going to "withdraw their money
from the bank" already did so, it seemed that government and corporations
had solved the bulk of the problem by throwing money and programmers
at it. By about April of 1999 interest in Y2K had dropped off, and people
stopped preparing; they listened to the overwhelming good news that
the "Y2K bug was squashed." Y2K was a REAL and serious problem,
with real solutions. Peak Oil, on the other hand, has no real, economically
viable or collective solution, at a MACRO level. It's now, "strategically
place the chess pieces, lock and load." (Hope for the best, prepare
for the worst.)
the opening paragraph to http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net sensationally
we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation
of a doomsday cult, apocalypse Bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory
society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most
widely respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the
world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who
are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak
oil is not really new to me. It is something at a young age I "knew"
was to occur in my lifetime but not, in the early 90's, "imminent."
I had not written about it publicly until 2005, because it didn't seem
like an immediate problem to worry about. Most people, while acknowledging
it is a serious and approaching problem, assume that it is something
in the long and distant future, something their children or grandchildren
will one day have to “deal with.” However, I'm telling you that
the issue is one of great concern for you and your community's and nation's
well-being, and that we are not getting the truth from the mainstream
as to the magnitude, lack of viable "solutions" at a macro
level (martial law is their solution), and imminence of the crisis.
It may be sensationalistic to say that modern civilization is on the
verge of total collapse, financially, economically, historically, nationally
and internationally. Yet these are the prophetic warnings I make boldly,
but if it were just me saying it, then no one would listen. I've studied
– with concentration, objectively, and absorbing as many facts as
my angelic brain could discern – the recent developments of the "bell
curve" on oil depletion for the first time since my fateful thesis
on resource depletion back in high school.
fact, in World Issues 300, which I elected when returning to high school
in 1992, and received the highest score in the class at the end of the
year, I wrote a lengthy thesis based on the global depletion of resources,
and that in roughly a generation, the "party would be over"
for modern civilization. So in a sense I was a doomsaying prophet since
high school age. But I never said or felt that it was "imminent,"
just inevitable; after all, industrial society is based on finite oil
and resources, and at the time I intuitively "knew" we had
it too good for our own good, and that our "modern" society,
when one looked at the BIG picture and long term, was merely to be a
blip – a hiccup in the long course of history.
for years this topic left my mind until recently, when I began researching
the issue, objectively, with hopes of coming to the truth: was it really
imminent, what was the evidence and scientific facts, how did it fit
in with my newfound identity as a prophet, and how did it relate to
visions thus far received? What were the "alternatives to oil?"
Is any real solution available? Or is the total collapse of civilization
imminent and inevitable, including the inevitable collapse of the modern
division of labor and electrical power grid?
was able to bypass the initial denial that seizes many new to the subject.
I never had to be kicked in the butt and shocked into the reality that
the media, flat-earth economists, and politicians in glossed-over sound
bites were promising "new" discoveries, nor did I have faith
in the "invisible hand" of the market or technology coming
to the rescue in the nick of time for us to ride happily into this "promised
land" of a new era of low pollution, efficiency and never-ending
because I could never be fooled into such delusions, even in 1992 as
a high school student, it seems that MOST who come across Peak Oil for
the first time are psychologically brainwashed emotionally and intellectually
that a crash will be averted, alternatives, technology and good old
"American Ingenuity" and a slew of "don't worry, be happy"
solutions by scientists and government will be implemented: after all
"they" (whoever "they" means) know what they are
doing. It is beyond the scope of the book to discuss, in depth, the
reality of the so-called alternatives to oil. But it is remarkable the
lengths so many are willing to go through to EMOTIONALLY delude themselves
into believing, however improbably, indeed, impossibly, that oil will
ever be "replaced" on the scale required to keep our 30-billion-barrel-per-year
global economy functioning, let alone "growing" as in the
era of cheap oil.
live in the last stage of an era of materialistic, utopian fantasy.
Faith in the intelligent, rational scientist has been taken over as
the "god" of the modern age. Many have FAITH, not in a Creator,
but in technology to solve all problems. And the Fed chairman will solve
all economic problems.
of dealing with myth and hyperbole, wishful thinking, etc. I'm giving
you cold, hard facts. It is beyond the scope of my book to give all
the reasons why there is absolutely NO mass alternative to cheap oil
at a MACRO level (or even expensive oil, for that matter), PERIOD. The
following are sometimes touted as "promising" alternatives,
to oil; note that ALL they can only provide is a minuscule fraction
of what our global economy requires to function and grow, and while
many of these will indeed be "growth" industries and technologies
as prices for oil rise as Peak is reached, there is no energy product
on earth that can match the energy density, cost, portability, versatility,
or infrastructure incorporation of oil, ever. Even massive research,
implementation, and mass production of a combination of all these "new"
alternatives to a maximum degree that is politically, technologically,
and economically possible, even extremely optimistically, along with
massive new drilling and exploratory searches for new fields, and running
existing fields, would only soften the impact of Peak Oil, or delay
it a measly two years or so. Any way you look at it, we are faced with
a destiny of industrial society collapse that will make the Great Depression
look like the "good old days." If you are in doubt about the
logistics, economics and technological viability to these "alternatives,"
you can listen to utopian wishful thinking, or you can get the facts.
See this page: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/AlternativesToOil.html. Please read and kill your denial
and wishful thinking.
you are old enough to remember the oil shocks of the 70's, you will
remember the numerous books and warnings of pessimistic doomsayers that
we were on the verge of oil depletion. For example, there were the infamous
"Club of Rome" conclusions that showed many bell curves on
energy and resource depletion, population growth and modern society.
While many of their conclusions and data seemed attractive in the grim
70's, the 80's and 90's came and went, oil prices collapsed, and the
attitudes of the early, mid and late 90's mirrored the peaceful and
very prosperous boom and bubble, this time with technology being integrated
into corporations and government, and Silicon Valley making overnight
multimillionaires in the dot-com bubble. The doomsayers were ignored
as the stock market multiplied; oil and gold remained low. Many at the
time were predicting Dow 100,000, and a "New Economy" driven
by innovation and computer technology. The Clinton Administration was
projecting never-ending budget surpluses as far as the eye could see.
This was all foolish, of course, as the stock market tanked beginning
in 2000, with the NASDAQ bubble taking the lead. Surpluses turned to
record budget deficits. The terrorist attacks created a new paradigm,
in that even though they killed fewer than 3000 people (minuscule),
they awoke the great bear of the United States. Soon the U.S. military
was on the move in the newly declared (and never-ending) "war on
terror" which in slight conspiracy-theory style, was actually a
new and global movement to strategically position itself where oil was
not yet in terminal decline: the Middle East.
of course, will never say directly it is for oil; instead the public
word is to "liberate" and spread democracy in a war against
tyranny. And the public buys it, hook, line and sinker! There are two
types of media: 1) one for the gullible and impressionable "sheeple"
and, 2) the other "alternatives," such as analysts and blogs
and opinions on the Internet.
pessimism of the 1970's and the warning of the "limits to growth"
WAS based on scientific reality and commonsense logic in that it was
to occur EVENTUALLY, but those doomsayers and doom-and-gloomers of the
1970's were wrong at the time because they based their conclusions on
emotion, the politics and fear of the time, and NOT on the true SCIENTIFIC
reality of "known reserves," geologic reality, oil depletion
rates, production rates and future demand, as well as new and improved
drilling techniques, and a drop in demand due to major conservation
efforts and industry-wide efficiency efforts, as well as improved recovery
due to some impressive technological breakthroughs in the industry in
the above reasons many people nowadays dismiss those has-beens. "We've
heard it all before! Begone, O doomsayer!"
within the Peak Oil community there are many who have cried "wolf"
and given premature estimates on the TIMING of when Peak Oil would be
reached. It should be noted that Peak Oil is a very solid reality, not
theory. It has been PROVEN over and over again, and MOST countries outside
of a handful of Middle Eastern countries are in terminal decline, as
GLOBAL oil will be in unavoidable decline in production in the coming
few short years. This is a fact you must accept and come to grips with;
again this is not opinion, but basic math based on the best available
(untainted and unexaggerated) proven reserves, total amount produced
thus far since oil production and consumption began, and quantity remaining.
nothing will ever replace oil on a large scale, and this includes the
hyped promising oil shale and tar sands of North America, drilling in
the ANWAR or North Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Caspian Sea, or increased exports
from Russia. This increased supply that undoubtedly will be tapped to
the maximum degree possible when oil reaches $200 a barrel will do nothing
more than make a minuscule dent in the big picture.
though I was only a teen in the early 80's, I remember the newfound
optimism of Reagan's "morning in America" piped into my Canadian
TV set, and I personally absorbed everything American. (I've lived in
the U.S. since 1995 and never turned back.) The oil crises were still
fresh in everybody's mind, and a few predicted an extrapolation based
on fears and trends of the time. This is typical for those caught up
into short-term societal trends. The trend-meisters of the late 70's
and early 80's were WRONG.
fantasies of Dow 50,000 or even 100,000 that many books propagate during
a euphoric boom, a pessimistic trend has a tendency also be assessed
and extrapolated. If everyone is bearish and pessimistic, it's often
a good idea to be a contrarian and do the opposite. In 1982 the Dow
was below 1000; interest rates and oil and gold and inflation were skyrocketing.
The construction industry came to a temporary halt. My mom had to go
on welfare at the time to raise us three kids. I may have been only
11 years old at the time, but the pessimism of the "adults"
as well as seeing many companies go out of business and many of the
"adults" lose their jobs, including my parents, really hit
home. I'm glad we kids were always fed, even if at times it was macaroni
and cheese and wieners.
one likes a pessimist or doomsayer. Ever since I was incarnated in the
present life, it was destined I would be a prophet, and not one that
says "peace" when there is no peace, nor “prosperity”
when economic collapse is around the corner. Instead I give you hard-core
truth as best as I can, logic, reason, common sense, lessons learned,
and divine insight. Remember that true prophets and angels appear just
before a crisis, and are obliged to give public warning about the said
is why I am presenting Peak Oil to you at this juncture: based on the
scientific conclusion and evidence, Peak Oil either,
A) has arrived and we are now at a global plateau in production, or
is damn close, and will peak within the next few years.
peak is reached, global production can be expected (conservatively)
to go into terminal decline, by 2 - 3% per year, while demand continues
to rise, resulting in spiraling oil and gas prices, with dire consequences
for the economy and civilization. There will be oil competition resulting
in military conflicts. It is said all wars are based to one degree or
another on natural resources. It could be land, food supply, or in the
modern era, available reserves of oil. It is black gold. The days of
easy discovery made in the back yard, as in the Beverly Hillbillies
TV program, making the family multimillionaires, are long gone ... Ha,
new to the issue of Peak Oil are surprised to learn that while there
are TECHNICALLY viable alternatives to oil, there are NO macro and economically
viable alternatives to the INEVITABLE and PERMANANT shortfall in global
oil and production supplies. They are also shocked to learn that all
the hype of "alternative fuels" such as biodiesel and the
"hydrogen economy," windmill or solar energy etc., are just
illusions bought into by the mainstream press, politicians and sheeple.
It is the utopian fantasy perpetuated by the "don't worry, be happy"
culture we belong to.
do not want you to be an uninformed member of the sheeple believing
in the spin, hype, and false promises of alternative solutions, blind
faith and lack of concern by classical economists – the market is
a miracle and will solve everything, so says Adam Smith – and EMOTIONAL
hope for the extrapolation of technological advances and/or science
of the past few generations into the foreseeable, long-term future.
"We transitioned from horses to cars just fine, so will we evolve
into new and exciting oil alternatives!" "They" – the
scientists, Federal Reserve Chairman, stock markets and analysts are
not worried; "they" will solve all our problems! Just adjust
interest rates a little bit, increase liquidity, and voilà, problem
telling you, after rationally and logically studying the scope of the
Peak Oil crisis at length, and logically studying everything from nuclear
energy, coal, tar sands, oil shale ANWAR, Caspian Sea deposits, new
drilling alternatives, hydrogen, ethanol and biodiesel fuel, solar panels,
wind turbines, etc., etc., etc., that there are NO alternatives to cheap
oil, or oil at ANY price for that matter. All the much hyped "alternatives"
can do, even when the price of oil rises to $400 a barrel, is merely
make at most a tiny dent in replacement of oil, of which we consume
a global 83.5 MILLION barrels per day, just to meet the daily functions
of modern life in the industrialized nations, and the U.S. uses ¼ of
the world's total. Take the word of someone who has studied the facts:
there is nothing even close to supplying the energy needs after global
production begins its INEVITABLE decline, PERIOD.
immediate reaction of the typical person is denial, when hearing the
facts. "Oh, technology will solve the problem" or, "the
market will take care of it; when oil reaches a certain price level,
'they' will find it economical to mass implement alternatives."
this is what most people want to believe. They don't want cold, hard
scientific facts and economic reality; they want promises and hype,
and desperately do not want to believe we are facing the collapse of
society and civilization itself. We don't want to hear bad news. We
as a culture are addicted to "happiness." The truth is too
hard for most people to emotionally accept.
handle on the Internet used to be "truthfinder." For the record,
I have found glimpses of absolute personal truth, much of which is also
macro-truth, designed to be shared publicly. Some people are "truth
seekers," but I go one step further ... I need to FIND truth. I
always say, "Beware of anyone who claims to know absolute truth,"
and I still say that even though yours truly is an incarnate angel;
I cannot possibly know ABSOLUTE truth about the afterlife, the truth
about God in his/her entirety, all about the future, etc. It should
be noted that sincerity and "truth-telling" are different
than knowing what is true. I love the truth, and of course have always
told the truth to readers; you will never find me in a lie, or contradicting
myself to any significant degree. This is because as a teen I was beaten
when I lied. I learned through this method of discipline never to exaggerate
and always to tell the truth, even if it hurts. I consider fiction and
fantasy to be in a sense LIES, and you will never find me writing fiction.
to the Internet there are many devoted to the truth, although not mainstream,
and they can be considered "contrarians." They read between
the lines, check facts and figures and even, as in the case of Peak
Oil, base their conclusions on hard data and scientific consensus, instead
of buying into the delusion perpetuated by classical economists and
politicians. Many are devoted to finding the truth, and many I respect
and will recommend from time to time.
Internet is also full of much nonsense, opinions, and in many cases
lies. While I'm not into "conspiracy theories," the Internet
is also full of them, and in the realm of Peak Oil, there is no shortage
of conspiracy theorists. I find their arguments and ideas interesting,
but not to be taken too seriously, in general.
is why it takes discernment and a grain of salt, to sift through the
data and conclusions of experts in the field and attempt to "sum
it all up" into one basic package of immutable and logical morsels
of written truth. Writing is a medium of communication that, while not
perfect at, I prefer to communicate in; in person I do not make a good
verbal communicator, as I become tongue-tied and shy. Like Paul and
Moses, I am slow of speech.
most effective means of communication is telepathic, which I had to
an astonishing degree, especially in the year 2000. In the spirit realm
there is no hiding, lying, or miscommunication; it is direct, obvious
and clear, fast and efficient. It is true that many refuse to go into
the Light after death and remain in the outer darkness for long periods,
because they are afraid to show themselves in full, naked exposure;
they KNOW that their pathological, lying nature will be seen, and they
get ashamed. They may wind up in a "purgatory" region among
other pathological liars, all lying to each other .... ha, ha.
learned and realized during the Y2K scare that we cannot trust the mainstream
media and politicians (intended to sooth the masses with the cult of
celebrity, FEAR, entertainment, diversions and manufactured crises,
such as Social Security). The mantra during Y2K of "prepare for
a weekend storm" was designed purely to placate the masses, get
them to keep their money in the bank, and avoid panic in general.
Oil and the conclusions it reaches are too extreme for 98% of the population
to emotionally accept, and this will likely remain so until oil is permanently
logged in the $200 to $400 price range – in other words, until they
are paying $7 to $20 a gallon for their soon-to-be worthless SUVs, the
U.S. dollar (currently petrodollars) collapses, the stock market utterly
collapses, with extremely high unemployment and interest rates and inflation,
and precipitous decline in global shipping and trade and rise in per
capita food prices. Until those days arrive, they will "fiddle
while Rome burns" or put their hands over their heads and say,
"I can't hear you!" The band will be playing while the Titanic
is sinking. (Remember, there is only a limited quantity of lifeboats!)
in the case of A.D. 68 to A.D. 70 Jerusalem, ignore the prophet's warnings
and stay inside the wall of the city while it is besieged, the population
starved to death or killed.
then, people will remain in denial. You, on the other hand, have FOREKNOWLEDGE,
via the alternative media on the Internet, in the hard-to-accept conclusion
that modern CIVILIZATION itself will imminently come to a permanent
end. Never before in history have so many had access to so much knowledge
as we now have on the Internet. The writing is on the wall. We are in
the calm before the storm. As a truth-FINDER, I'm telling you that Peak
Oil is real, and that you must do something to prepare, either spiritually,
psychologically, or materially. If you are content to die swiftly in
the coming collapse, then all power to you. It is not my goal to scare
you into suicidal thoughts. As angels often have to say, “Do not be
this conclusion is seemingly so extreme, one will initially engage in
uninformed wishful thinking. "Well, once prices are high enough,
oil shale and biodiesel will take over. We might go through a slump,
but we will transition just fine." This is the mindset of a good
percentage of the people in society. The situation is further exacerbated
by detractors of the reality of Peak Oil, who give a false, "everything
is fine" mantra. When you actually study Peak Oil you will come
to grips with the fact that there is NO SOLUTION. Now, Of COURSE they
will drill more and attempt greater investment in alternatives such
as biodiesel when oil prices rise sufficiently.
most people are under the naive delusion that it will somehow replace,
EN MASSE, cheap oil. This is impossible. All of the touted alternatives
hyped by politicians and media and certain scientists can logistically
only provide a tiny fraction of what crude oil produces. Besides, where
would we get the investment capital to invest in, research and implement
on a mass scale all these emotionally appealing yet logistically and
economically unviable "alternatives" to oil when the economy
collapses with crude at $200 to $400 a barrel?
are facing an imminent collapse of the American and global economy due
to Peak Oil, and unlike the 70's oil shocks, this will be merely the
onset of a new PERMANANT condition.
a speculative but not divinely exact scenario, if Peak Oil occurs in
the coming few years, or is now upon us as I write this in early 2010,
expect Great Depression-like unemployment and bankruptcies and debt
default with early 80's-like inflation and interest rates from (approximately)
2012 to 2020. This is a best-case scenario WITH ideal market incentives
to implement all known technologies, alternatives, new exploration,
and full extraction of existing world oil fields, including opening
up capped oil wells, full, coordinated and worldwide conservation efforts,
and global reduction in demand through all means, including a rise in
interest rates to reduce demand.
of market reactions, expect panic in the oil markets relatively soon
after peak becomes obvious, with an unprecedented rise in oil prices,
as nations, now shocked into the reality of Peak Oil (as most will not
take it seriously until it's too late) hoard their dwindling supplies
from the market, and futures traders speculate in panic at the now obvious
situation. Peak Oil gurus will be interviewed, and anyone who has prepared
for the coming inevitable collapse will begin making the headlines.
You will hear of "those fear-mongers" trying to create a self-fulfilling
prophecy, and a formal ridicule of survivalists, just as happened during
the Y2K scare. It's going to happen again, my friends! Shoot the messenger!
(I'm used to it!)
will blame liberals; liberals will blame conservatives. People will
be blaming "insurgents and terrorists" in Arab countries,
and "rag heads" will be hated. Muslim opinion will reach a
new low in America and hate will reach a new high in the coming years.
False politicians, even those who know the mathematical truth behind
Peak Oil, will say, "don't panic, the good old days of $1 gasoline
are around the corner." Again.
there's no way the assurances of the classical economists, fantasy-mongers
of the Old Order, and blind and false politicians will bring the price
of oil down. Also no amount of prayer will re-fill the oil fields. The
blame game will be played with many hostile words and accusations. The
right-wing hate-mongers will idiotically call for nuclear missiles aimed
at Makkah unless the price of oil comes down. Leftist anarchists and
their supporters or sympathizers will blame "big oil companies"
and fascist right-wing neo-cons and Christians.
is wise to expect massive global military geopolitical interventions
to secure oil fields. Nations will fall and be propped up. The United
States of America, already strategically engaged in the Middle East,
and knowing its days as a global power are numbered (after all, the
great "Satan" knows his time is short, haha) will likely seize
oil fields (in the name of freedom from tyranny, Middle East "freedom"
and the war on terrorism, for instance) in a futile attempt to keep
the American way of life afloat. There will be, even at this time, denial
that the reality of Peak Oil is upon us as a new, permanent condition.
At present the truth of Peak Oil is at the first stage all truth goes
through, "ridicule." Then comes "violently attacked,"
and eventually it will become "self-evident." By that time
the economy will have financially collapsed, despair will have set in,
rural properties will have spiraled in relative value, and urban and
suburban properties will have collapsed in demand and value.
are talking about bringing back the draft, as I write this, even though
President Bush promised "no draft, period" during the elections.
Expect it, and they will give politically correct reasons to implement
the next and final draft of the American military/industrial/global
empire. The powers that be will attempt to hold on to whatever financial
power they have remaining. In the coming years the lifestyle enjoyed
by 90% of the middle and lower middle class in America will be available
only to the top, upper, super-rich 1%. What we consider "needs"
and rights in this presently affluent society will become luxuries afforded
only by those that prepared, or diversified and held on to some of their
wealth. Remember that in the West and the good old U.S. of A., especially
since World War II, we have ridden the greatest level of affluence this
world has ever seen. It was, in the background, slaked, fueled and manufactured
by the closest thing this world has ever seen to "free energy."
We used the stored carbon-based deposits of ancient life from 300 million
years ago, all in the course of a handful of generations. Simultaneously
we invented and distributed electric power, which by the early 20th
century, reached most homes. New forms of communication emerged, including
telephone, television, and now computers on a mass scale, all interconnected
by the Internet, which only really took off starting in 1995. It is
my optimistic view that remnants of the Internet will survive Peak Oil,
at least for a while, in some third world nations.
civilization, in its twilight, suffers from the global oil peak and
shortages, global trade will collapse, as the ships run out of fuel
as supplies collapse and become too expensive, exporters such as Japan
and China stop manufacturing for lack of oil-based plastics and fuels
for manufacturing processes, and fuel stops for the diesel trucks coming
to and from Wal-Mart (which as I write is an economic powerhouse, perceived
as invincible), and will soon go bankrupt due to lack of purchasing
power from the masses when unemployment, massive mortgage and consumer
debt-bubble default will become a reality. Depending on when exactly
peak is reached, and how financial markets react, and the massive debt
pyramid implodes, expect unemployment to reach at least 25% to 50% in
the latter stages of collapse.
airlines, due to lack of jet fuel and radically increased ticket prices,
unable to fly, will go soon go bankrupt. Expect only limited flights
for the affluent – when fuel is available. Most flights and planes
will be grounded, long term. Moreover, lack of demand from those unable
to drive to the airport due to lack of fuel and severe curtailing of
tourist and layman travel due to a generally collapsing economy permanently
puts an end to the tourism industry. As cities, Las Vegas and Orlando
will collapse in the early stages. Hotels and car rental agencies will
go bankrupt EN MASSE, nationwide.
of severe shortages and outrageous gasoline prices and long lines, forcing
possible government rationing, SUVs and hybrid vehicles alike will be
unable to make the commute to work from the suburbs, the child of post-WWII
affluence and residence of middle-class America, and their inevitable
decline in value (even though in a record price bubble just a few year
ago depreciates to near zero. Suburban homes will catastrophically decline
in value, as their owners abandon them, and the banks foreclose as personal
bankruptcies skyrocket to levels not seen since the 1930's Depression.
There will be a cascading debt collapse in the U.S., reducing the foreign-owned
consumer debt to default, which the last remnants of the central banks
will attempt to "pay off" with fiat money, reducing most of
the banking system and US dollar to rubble.
the trucks full of food run out of fuel and stop pulling into Albertson’s
and Safeway and Winn-Dixie nationwide, some of which used to travel
hundreds of miles with produce from Latin America or wine from France,
distribution centers and warehouses close, since no one is able to get
gasoline to go to work, even in car pools. Public transportation will
reach overload levels as people are forced to leave their cars at home.
hoarding from initial several days worth of existing stocks of food
from all the supermarkets, sky-rocketing prices when available, and
eventually rationing in the cities as governments, with the aid of the
military, ration food to the now hungry and desperate masses. Many,
now trapped in the suburbs, may make a bike trek or walk into the inner
city soup lines to eat and feed their family. The stock market will
not be open in this situation, since trading will come to a halt when
the banking system freezes, possibly under emergency executive order,
and stock brokers are unable to make it to work as the New York, Chicago,
London and Tokyo markets close down. There may or may not be bank runs
initially, but the collapse of the U.S. PETRODOLLAR to near-worthless
levels may discourage any runs on cash. But there will be a medium of
exchange, until the system breaks down totally.
plentiful croplands and the agribusinesses that run them, within a couple
of seasons, depending on how sudden and severely Peak Oil hits, will
run out of oil-based fertilizer and pesticides, and they cannot obtain
fuel to run the combines and tractors. The railroads, which supply the
bulk of oil-based chemicals to refineries and factories run out of diesel
fuel and will go bankrupt. (If the train operators are even able to
get work in their SUVs.) The grains normally hauled to processing plants
will halt in their tracks. If grains are available, by some miracle,
they will not be able to be transferred and processed to food manufacturing
plants, which will run out of packaging supplies as the division of
labor shuts down, and people are unable to drive to work. Eventually
plants nationwide will no longer be able to function, assuming the still-functioning
plants have a functioning banking system to pay their now unreliable
will live, aging, in the pastures, peacefully grazing or in stockades
eating the last remnants of oats and barley and straw. There will be
no diesel-powered trucks to pick them up and bring them to be slaughtered
and processed by slaughterhouse workers unable to find fuel to make
it to work. If they hitch a ride to work, within a few weeks they will
realize they cannot cash their checks or deposit them at the ATMs, which
have "out of order" messages displayed on the screen.
will continue to be hatched in farms, but no trucks will show up to
haul them to the market. Cows will still give milk, but the distribution
system will shut down.
fast food restaurants will go bankrupt within a short time as hamburger
patties, buns and fries, once reliably shipped for hundreds of miles
with cheap diesel fuel, becomes spotty or unavailable as thousands and
thousands of trucks nationwide, stranded on highways and miles from
distribution centers, become newly unavailable. The drivers of the trucks,
frustrated by the lack of fuel at gas stations, or the inability of
their credit cards to work at truck stops due to a frozen banking system
and means of payment, begin abandoning their trucks and hitchhiking
home to take care of their family. But a few loners will sleep in the
back of their trucks, listening to chaotic and panicky chatter on the
CB radio; they will notice many deserted cars riddling the once-busy
interstate highway, with the occasional car full of hitchhikers whizzing
by, interspersed with a few Highway Patrol officers speeding by, sirens
addition, the inability of low-wage workers to arrive to work by car
or now increasingly by rationed and overcrowded public transportation,
will shut down restaurants, at least those that have not yet closed
down by sharply decreased demand from a retrenching public for such
luxuries as "fast food." Many will ride out this crisis, eating
old canned foods from the pantry, and cooking up food from the freezer.
They will be on the telephone calling loved ones, watching in horror
at the unfolding global and national crisis on CNN, Fox News or CBC
or the BBC, by frazzled reporters stuck at work for days at a time,
in New York City or Atlanta. Many stations will, one by one, be going
off the air, with reruns, some with a marquee scroll of the Emergency
Broadcast System broadcasting continuously.
electrical power grid is the hallmark of modern industrial civilization.
Without it, it all ends, and nothing can soon exist or function without
it. The good news is that electricity is either supplied by coal, Hydro,
natural gas or nuclear power, with a tiny fraction by solar or wind.
But it depends on an oil-supported infrastructure, complex division
of labor and banking system … and workers willing and able to drive
to work, expecting to get paid, and assuming they have to fuel to make
it to work. It takes oil to process, mine and ship coal.
the collapse of Peak Oil advances, after the initial shocks and initial
economic collapse and dislocations, there will be regional blackouts
and brownouts with attempts to reroute available power to the major
metropolitan population centers, filled with hungry and now unemployed
people and families standing in food and water lines. If they can withstand
the rioting and civil disturbances unable to be quelled by the overstretched
military, which has by now seized oil supplies and distribution choke-neck
holds internationally, nationally and locally, under a state of FEMA-induced
emergency; the military will be given as much access and power necessary
to commandeer any stockpiles to keep the Hummers running and transport
planes operational. Martial Law, along with full arrest powers, distribution
of water to urban centers will be under full implementation, state by
state and city by city, but because the military and volunteers and
relief workers are limited in resources, only a handful of cities will
be attended to; this will only be temporary, and not a long-term solution.
No national police state or concentration camps will be politically
or economically viable; under the stress of a nationwide state of emergency
and halted oil supplies, this "solution" will last months,
unable to make it to work to maintain and/or repair the power grid due
to lack of fuel for their cars, most coming from the suburbs, or to
get paid due to a frozen banking system, will, after a few weeks, in
hunger, stay home to protect their children and loved ones from the
ensuing civil chaos. Many will die protecting their homes, and many
will kill protecting their homes. The overwhelmed police departments
will not be able to respond to the onslaught of 911 calls. Hospitals
will ration the influx of patients, if the ambulances can obtain fuel.
overstretched and now long-term unpaid police and military will be attempting
to maintain order, and are the last in the food chain in individuals
to maintain order ... a new and frightening world situation. Many will
give up and protect their families, realizing that it is too overwhelming
a situation even for the most die-hard, dedicated, selfless public servant.
they are no longer paid due to a collapsed financial system, spotty
and unreliable food for themselves, and adequate fuel for their cars,
they will go home to protect their families and be with them in this
time of crisis. The power grid, some of it on automation, will begin
systematically breaking down, until, nationwide, in most industrialized
nations, including in once powerful and affluent America, it will once
and for all go down. Within minutes, there will be no phone lines, Internet,
911, ambulances, or running water, no heat, no air conditioning, no
refrigeration. Once it goes down, for days, or weeks, it will stay down,
never to return.
the die-off begins.
it is in the middle of winter the heat will promptly shut down, and
within hours countless people will be stranded in these dark cities
huddled with fear with loved ones for what little warmth remains. Some
will, after days of living and sleeping in scarves and parkas, die of
hypothermia; some will foolishly create small campfires out of books,
encyclopedias, Bibles, Qurans, and wood torn from their walls. Some
families will die horribly from smoke inhalation and houses burned to
the ground, with no oil-powered fire trucks to arrive and extinguish
a few days, dehydration, as the water supply is cut off, begins to set
in, as people drink from their toilet water tanks and bowls. Hunger,
now universal, begins to take over, as the days of well-stocked supermarkets
ends. Within a few weeks, very hungry and thirsty survivors, by the
millions, will roam the streets, in a daze, desperately scrounging for
old scraps of food or uncontaminated water or eating dirty road ice
and snow. They will begin doing the ultimate survivalist behavior of
cannibalism – an unimaginable undertaking by a society only recently
well-fed and obese, but a welcome relief to the gnawing hunger
pangs, with tempting availability of millions of soon-to-be-rotting
human corpses. Disease further thins the remaining population, who,
though logistically trapped in the cities and suburbs, gather a few
belongings and dust off the old mountain bike hanging up in the garage,
bike or walk to close-by rural farms, depending on the location of the
country, and seek out self-sufficient farmers, the survivalists who
made public their stores of food, orange groves like in Florida or California,
to find a little something to eat or steal before they die. Those who
have a tank-full of gas or who gather in desperate and marauding gangs
armed to the teeth will roam the countryside, until they themselves
run out of all fuel. In a relatively brief time, most desert cities
such as Las Vegas or Phoenix will become a barren wasteland of dehydrated
a relatively short time, a good percentage, perhaps a significant majority,
of the American and/or Western world's population will have died in
a season, or at least a year or so. As the spring thaw begins weeks
or months later in northern regions, including places like Winnipeg,
Manitoba, or Grand Forks, North Dakota, decomposing by the millions,
corpses giving off plague-like diseases will kill many more of the survivors.
There will be no oil-powered bulldozers to push the corpses by the millions
into mass graves worldwide.
now, this eerie landscape, now silent of planes overhead, the roar of
rush-hour traffic, the once hectic and noisy orders of burgers at fast
food restaurants, and the noise of once buzzing stock markets in downtown
Manhattan or London or Tokyo, has, in a relatively brief period of time,
become a relic of a time survivors of the distant future will look upon
with resentment and disgust as a disgraceful era. They will sift through
the remnants of dusty libraries, built and stocked with abundant knowledge
and science of the brief but now bygone industrial and technological
age – assuming the books were not used as campfire fuel to keep warm
– looking for methods on how to grow food locally and organically,
with whatever livestock is remaining in scattered farms. Survivors of
the Great Collapse and die-off will one by one gather into small groups,
then eventually into tribes of 50 to 200 people. In the early years
the life expectancy will be very low, with malnutrition and disease
rampant, but they will adapt to these new and unavoidable conditions.
There will be no remaining banking system, national government, constitution,
national military, stock market, retirement or pension plans, television,
radio, electricity or running water.
will gather in communal tribal groups, intent on basic survival, living
at levels we would presently consider as indigent as many primitive
Third World nations once were, with no toothbrushes, razors to shave
with, toilet paper, running water, electricity or phone system. They
will at first use telephone books and Bibles for toilet paper, until
they run out. Rudimentary health care will be learned by a few from
the aging libraries, and for medicines some will grow herbs. They will
use whatever tools and relics of the Industrial Age they can find as
they scrounge mechanic's shops and abandoned garages of suburban homes,
some of which contain a few aging skeletons, which they will nonchalantly
bypass and emotionally block out. These are the true survivors of the
Great Collapse. It is estimated that without fossil fuel consumption,
the earth can support only one to two billion people.
generation will have just survived something without precedent in recorded
human history. In their groups as the years move on and a local sense
of community develops and a meager sense of season-to-season stability
has been reached, there shall develop a respect for nature, with a true
spirituality. Hardened by witnessing great death, collapse and transformation
of civilization, the end of the age of oil and mass fossil fuel consumption,
the survivors will be among the wisest and most spiritually advanced
people the world has ever seen. They will work in co-operative, sharing
and collectively self-sufficient communities. They will create music
and learn to play "old" instruments left over from the Industrial
Age: trumpets, violins, guitars, and even a grand piano, collecting
dust like an artifact in a nearby suburban home. They will learn from
old books. The great and glorious cities and skyscrapers will stand
like sentinels, dark, lifeless, quiet and forever uninhabited.
will evolve and be maintained and preserved by writings of the prior
age. Nation-states and mass warfare will become a thing of the past
as trade becomes localized; many who died in the Great Collapse but
died with negative karma, or those who wish to complete their incarnations
to attain spiritual enlightenment will do so in succeeding generations.
But logistically, because the world was so rapidly depopulated, only
a few will be allowed to incarnate. (Those who wish to incarnate will
do so in surviving, indigent countries now deemed "savage,"
backward, unadvanced and near survival level, countries close to local
village life and local food production, many of whose per capita income
is less than $2 a day. Presently 1/3 of the world's population as I
write this may survive quite well.)
of the population of this planet earth who have never been on the Internet,
or do not have electricity, never dreamed of owning a car, and in many
cases even a bicycle, will tend to their rice and potato crops, or chickens,
or mule-drawn plow, tilling the soil, or in an old wooden boat, for
a daily catch of fish to market for the local community and village.
Many in this category will continue working, unfazed, in their daily
labors, never reached by the news of what happened to a significant
portion of the population of the world, the Western World, and America,
the great global power of the 20th and early 21st century. This farmer
or fisherman may have, in days gone by, wanted to immigrate to this
legendary country, in search of a visa to work in the land of opportunity.
But the planes have stopped flying, the local American Embassy in town
has been abandoned, and the Hollywood movies have stopped coming to
his local theater, where he used to spend 50 cents to watch a pirated
copy of Star Wars, or Raiders of the Lost Ark.
messengers and future travelers, tribes will peacefully come into contact
with each other, and spread legend, horror stories by word of mouth,
of a great and gloriously affluent and technically advanced civilization;
many will talk of its greed and short-sightedness and waste, but be
awestruck by its achievements. They will build on technologies already
existing, build a spiritual life led by swamis, gurus, shamans, and
masters and cultivate collective child-rearing and advanced spiritual
knowledge. Bibles will still exist, as will copies of the Quran. There
will be no more paper to write on, and writing materials, like a lowly
pencil or pen, which requires a highly complex division of labor, will
quickly be used up, as will all blank sheets of paper available in the
office copy machines and libraries of abandoned cities.
is my scenario and “hope” for the long-term future, after the
Great Collapse, based on the Starburst 2020 vision given to me, where
I was transported to the year 2092, and the coming collapse of modern
civilization itself, which as you can see with Peak Oil, is imminent.
Sounds like science fiction doesn't it? I'm telling you that while the
exact details of this hypothetical scenario are unlikely, word for exact
word, it is exactly what we face – in a few years down the road, even
imminently. In fact, this is probably the EASIEST “prediction” I’ve
ever had to make as a prophet … it is not a question of “if,”
eventual shut down of ALL power grids, world-wide. This will and must
reaction of most of you, as in the Y2K era, is denial, wishful thinking,
inaction ("well, sounds convincing, but I'll wait and see")
or “shoot the messenger.” It is my hope that most of you are
beyond "shooting the messenger." You all know that the test
of a prophet is "you will know them by their fruits." Be suspect
of people who have ulterior motives, such as profit alone. This was
true during the era of Y2K. Some sold many books, or tried to tie it
into Biblical prophecy or hopes of "a rapture." Peak Oil has
nothing to do with Biblical prophecy or a rapture. And while some will
sell possibly millions of books when Peak Oil hits the mainstream, it
has never been my motive to sell books. In fact because of the far-out
nature of my book, I have not actively sought out an agent to publish
in a mainstream publisher. It would be a pleasant surprise if I ever
sold enough books to recoup the time DONATED to writing the website
and book (at $10 an hour times 10,000 hours, I should "earn"
$100,000). The money would be put to charitable use only. And what if
I DID use it for personal use, hypothetically? Would it be wrong for
a prophet to use the proceeds to SURVIVE? Indeed, I am prophesying that
only a very small number will ever read my book, website, and know that
this "Daniel" – who was immortalized and now read around
the globe in the Christian "Holy Bible" and studied to death
by millions of prophecy scholars – has ever returned as an incarnate
angel. If you do survive the coming collapse, please do all you can
to preserve my book for a future generation. The Internet will not survive
the Collapse, except in Third-World countries, and portions of Europe,
you know and I've said before, being a true prophet is not personally
profitable, which is why I still live well below the poverty line. I
still require charitable donations even to keep up the website. Again,
some of those who first come to read my message and book will be tempted
to SHOOT THE MESSENGER instead of psychologically accepting the visions
and/or common sense and logical conclusions and views by respected geologists
and scientists. I'm not an acclaimed geologist and I do not have a Ph.D.
I had a normal and happy childhood, and as a product of the Industrial
Age and all its free time and affluence, in a sense would like nothing
more than for the party to continue. But again, NO amount of prayer
by anyone will refill the oil fields.
of several hundred subscribers as I write this in 2005, a few are already
living in a near self-sufficient rural community, are long-time survivalists,
and a small number became survivalists as a result of the Y2K scare.
However, most in the latter category gave up preparing and/or storing
food and went in different directions. I lost contact with some of them,
and they no longer care about preparing.
food and water and other supplies, as well as buying a hybrid vehicle
or econobox (politically correct, but expensive and you have to consider
if the cost is actually worth the money you will save, even if gas reaches
$7 to $10 in the mid term), or riding a bike from now on, will give
you an initial "cushion" that will support you without fear
during the initial "shocks," which I speculate will be like
1973/1974 at first: Lines at gas stations, hoarding at supermarkets,
and intermittent power outages. Unlike the Y2K scare, we do not have
a universally declared date of "zero point." Peak Oil is not
an exact science, as far as timing goes, but the evidence is overwhelming
that it is "soon."
the later stages, once people realize the price of oil will never go
down again, or Peak Oil becomes mainstream, which admittedly won't happen
until it's too late for the majority to actually do anything about it,
expect shortages of solar panels, batteries etc. Prime real estate in
depressed rural areas will be in demand. People will want to join survivalist
communities. The suburban real estate bubble is going to collapse even
without Peak Oil. In a sense this is a rerun of Y2K, and the computer
scare was just a warm-up, as were the 70's oil shocks and doom-and-gloom
pessimism. This time we are heading towards the downslope of the cliff.
This is where the actual rubber meets the road. The writing is on the
wall. The wolf is at the door.
this will be a new PERMANANT condition, and not hysteria that comes
about when oil prices reach new highs at the pump. Indeed, it is entirely
possible that oil prices could DECLINE again, to more acceptable levels;
should this occur, don't be disillusioned that Peak Oil is not real;
you can ignore the evidence, and come to the conclusion that the recent
oil price run-up of 2004 and 2005 and 2006 ($57 a barrel as of April,
a peak, but went down again, but recently spiked to $75 after hurricane
Katrina, then finally $145 then back down to $90 a barrel) was temporary,
and become complacent. Many in the Peak Oil community, who have been
following this carefully and with great anticipation, are convinced
that this is indeed the peak as I write this, and are following the
daily market price of oil, convinced that every uptick in price is more
"evidence" of more to come. As a prophet I've learned not
to follow the market on a daily, short-term basis. I'm not a futures
trader, and will not give any financial advice necessarily on either
short-term oil or the stock market, which I view as having reached "Peak
Stock" as of 2000, as I long since predicted; stocks will NEVER
again regain their glory, despite the mainstream spin and "talk-up"
of the spinsters, money magazines and stockbrokers and central banks
who want you to keep your money in; it’s all coming to an end. They
know what will happen if a significant percentage of the sheeple take
Peak Oil seriously, or gold seriously, or any commodity of "real
value," since U.S. dollars (since approximately 1973, "petrodollars")
and fiat money are, and will be, utterly worthless in the long run.
may wonder what I am doing to prepare. Well, I don't earn enough money
to move from Chico, California at present, but I was considering moving
in advance to India, where I can kill two birds with one stone ... meet
up with masters and gurus to help complete my ascension and reawaken
my once fully awakened kundalini while simultaneously living in a society
that, while overpopulated and at risk for disease transmission, is not
nearly as oil-dependent as America. Mind you, I am not afraid in any
some of you, while not fearing death, will be bummed out as to the NATURE
of your death. No one wants to be killed or tortured to death at the
hands of another, and neither do I. (It is unlikely I will be martyred
in the present life; my death is likely to be due to "natural causes"
in the Collapse, or a cardiac arrest or any health problem that may
develop in the physical body. Even an incarnate angel can catch a disease
and get sick!)
likely, due to societal ties created by my website and book, and desire
to help educate and warn existing and new readers, I will remain in
the U.S.A. Unlike Y2K, however, where I stored up lots of food, and
was somewhat of a survivalist, I won't be preparing much this time around.
Depending on exactly when and how the expected collapse manifests, I
will remain calm and cover it and electronically remain in touch with
the world on the Internet, until the banking system shuts down, and/or
I can't afford rent anymore, and get evicted, or the power grid shuts
down, ultimately and finally by the year 2020, if the vision given to
me by God of Starburst 2020 is correct, in the current time-line. But
nothing is written in stone, especially concerning specific dates, and
that includes WWIII. Perhaps the missiles will just rot away in their
silos across America, never to be launched. In a best-case collapse
scenario, America will still "function" for a while, but the
economy will have collapsed, its citizens reduced to poverty, rendering
it a "Bangladesh with missiles." And an unused weapon is a
also worry about India and Pakistan in the coming global meltdown, since
tensions will rise, chaos will erupt, and many will consider it "time"
to settle scores. My best friend, who is Muslim, knows the Quran and
Urdu language, but, married to a Muslim husband, has recently been thinking
about divorcing him and going her separate path. She is the only on-line
reader I've met in person, and she has been following me and conversing
for at least three years. Now that I am warning about the Peak Oil crisis,
and she is reading the evidence for herself, she has second thoughts;
she may stay married to her husband and move out of the country to Pakistan,
which is considered a "backward" country compared to the current
oil-driven, affluent American standard of living. Either way we are
facing the end of an era, of America as a global economic and political
power, and this is due to happen even if Peak Oil were total fiction!
The house of financial cards is teetering on the brink as I write this.
Peak Oil is the NEXT BIG thing to watch and research. Do you own research!
Stay out of denial!
the collapse of modern civilization, I will go hungry like the rest
of the population, but unlike 99% of the spoiled and obese American
society, I have suffered true want and hunger, desperation and lack
of hope in my drifting and homeless situations throughout my adult years
of the 20's. I've already discussed my homeless situation, the shelters
I've been through, the street-smarts learned, and basic survival-oriented
mindset it produced. In fact, before I was awakened as an angel and
prophet, still as a growing agnostic/atheist, in 1996, I ended up homeless
for the first time in my life. After three or four days without food,
and no hope of getting any (I was too proud to seek out a soup kitchen)
in desperation, I shoplifted $10 worth of food. Believe me, I don't
care how moral and honest you are: true hunger has the tendency to change
your morals. You will "justify it" because you see a well-stocked
grocery store, and your body's metabolism goes into shock mode. Because
I was from out of state, they put a $100 bail on me, and I was stuck
for 40 days and 40 nights for a charge which should have been mere "probation."
I realize some will think less of me for shoplifting, particularly since
I've become a prophet and angel three years later. The act of shoplifting
in this case, while breaking mortal law, meant little from a divine
perspective. It was instead a learning experience and karmic reaction.
The Christian concept of "sin" is just plain wrong.
am also not going to sugar-coat my past life as an adult, but rather,
tell you the truth. But I'm not at liberty to tell you exactly ALL I've
done wrong, as most of you will take it the wrong way. I will keep it
a secret between God and me, and/or a truly enlightened master who will
not judge but instead UNDERSTAND. Even a public figure deems it not
to be wise to reveal ALL his deepest deeds, thoughts and secrets. But
I DO give you my thoughts NOT because I get an ego kick out of it, but
so that you can know, honestly, what goes through the mind of someone
who has been enlightened to Christ-consciousness. The good news is that
when attaining enlightenment, acquisition of truth and knowledge doesn't
end. As long as I'm in the flesh, I will still learn more, which I figure
will come in handy in the afterlife. Some of you are damn close to a
full-blown kundalini awakening! So I rejoice that I can share what I
go through, and help guide you on the path to Light.
could keep quiet on such acts, but it all happened for a reason. It
is true that even the saints were not always perfect, and that includes
Jesus of the Bible, Moses, Mohammad, Daniel of old, Ezekiel, etc. Including
you! SO do not cast stones to anyone unless you are perfect since birth.
However, even Jesus did not condemn or throw stones, and many think
he was indeed "perfect" since birth!
may wonder why I keep saying this. It is because 21st-century
Daniel achieved something which we all can achieve, but you will NOT
do so by taking an "Original Sin, ‘filthy rags,’ ‘I'm such
a wretched sinner! I'm displeasing God! I'm so unworthy!’” approach
to enlightenment and true God-consciousness. Many do indeed approach
God in this manner, encouraged by pastors and at a time of personal
despair and personal weakness. I'm telling you be STRONG of spirit,
disciplined and self-responsible! I'm telling you that true masters
do not perpetuate this "sinning-all-the-time" guilt and fear-based
concept of God.
is why I have wisdom to teach, and you should learn from someone who
KNOWS what it is like, to
go truly hungry,
act on that hunger, and
- experience the
KARMA and reaction from the act.
- I know that a
certain percentage of you will indeed wind up unemployed, bankrupt,
unprepared and even homeless and on the streets. You can listen to the
lessons and survival skills from someone who has been there. Fortunately
I was homeless during an affluent society in an affluent age. In the
coming collapse, should Peak Oil manifest in crises, the soup kitchens
will be overwhelmed, and supplies short. Many will suffer and experience
true hunger for the first time in their lives, including my readers
who have done nothing to prepare. Like Y2K, only a very small percentage
will take action regardless of sincerity, honest motives, evidence and
appealing arguments made, and even if made often. It is, in fact, one
of my goals, to get a few of you, who may be middle class, to take LONG
TERM steps to prepare, NOW, before it's too late.
may be one of the long-term survivors of the collapse and Starburst
2020 if you can grow your own food and be self-sufficient. I realize
not all of you have the means to prepare to this degree, which is why
I say the least you can do is accumulate at least a few months’ worth
of food and be prepared to lose your employment for an extended period,
in a society WITHOUT welfare, Social Security or food stamps. Expect
to lose your health insurance. This is why I'm always teaching a good
complex carbohydrate diet with minimal sugar and fat, especially saturated
fats, less meat and to engage in REGULAR exercise. It doesn't have to
be extreme, like I used to do with bodybuilding/powerlifting. A daily
brisk, 20-minute power or prayer walk can do wonders!
multivitamins and eat in-season, locally grown food, fruits and vegetables.
After the collapse we will no longer get energy-intensive and expensive-to-produce
TV dinners, canned foods, lettuce from Mexico or grapes from California
or fresh oranges from Florida, or energy-wasteful beef and chicken and
IF nothing ever happens, and I am dead wrong, this is always good advice,
since most Americans or Europeans are only a few paychecks from homelessness.
Remember that in the prophecies I'm giving you, you will be joining
millions of bankrupt, hungry, car-less urbanites and former suburbanites,
and in desperation, combined with 300 million hand guns, the unprepared,
desperate and unascendent, although they may seem like OK guys to hang
around with as long as they are on a full stomach and watching the Superbowl,
will turn to riots, rebellion, looting and pillaging. At least this
will be the case in the early stages of civilizational collapse.
for my "exit strategy" for the imminent end of civilization,
here it is: Should it occur when living in my present California location,
I will not freeze to death in winter, and can do without air conditioning
in summer. When the breakdown in food supplies starts, I lose my income
and apartment, the oil stops flowing, trucks stop pulling into Albertson’s,
I will not shoplift or rob as I would have in my early 20's, when I
was an unascendent atheist, "mad at the world" and unconcerned
with divine karma. I wouldn't be divinely "punished" if I
did, but I have ascended beyond this. Instead, I will take that as my
signal for my final 50-day "fast."
2000, before I was baptized, I fasted for 7 days. The first few meals
are the hardest. Then the sensation of hunger, while still prominent,
is no longer predominant, as the metabolism shuts down and enters "survival
mode." In the early days of my final "fast, " in my final
incarnation at the End of the Days (age, and civilization) as promised
in Daniel 12:13, I will comfort many of the sick and starving people
in my region if possible with the promise of the Hereafter to shortly
come. Then, when I myself get too weak, I will use whatever strength
and wasted muscles are left to climb a local foothill with a few gallons
of water, where I will sit cross-legged, praying, quietly, intensely
and patiently waiting until my body begins to shut down. As I breath
my last few breaths as an incarnate angel and modern prophet, all prophecies
having been fulfilled, and the society around me no longer functioning,
I will finally leave my body, where I am to be trained and promoted
to the celestial identity and function of an Ancient of Days. I will
probably meet an influx of millions of departed souls, all coming at
once. The function of an Ancient of Days is Celestial Judge and a ruler
of sorts. It has not been revealed to me as to what I'll be doing, but
I have peace in the revelation of this soul promotion. It is by no means
a self-important, ego-driven desire, but instead was a humbling revelation.
While existing on earth I am a mere messenger. But something grand and
a position as yet too glorious to be revealed awaits me. Therefore it
is something to look forward to. I believe that if you have a strong
connection with God, have a kundalini awakening, and pray intensely
for a few days, you too can be informed of ANYTHING. When I became an
angel, all prayers were answered INSTANTLY, and nothing was impossible.
It is said in Biblical scriptures that faith can move mountains. I'm
telling you that the extremely powerful yet mysterious KUNDALINI gives
you the power to COMMAND GOD to do virtually anything! I shall write
more about the source of the powers, insight and abilities and divine
presence I gained through kundalini, yet it can take a full book in
and of itself! Like any subject, you can search and read about kundalini,
the chakras, and how to "awake the snake" through right thought,
right action, unconditional love, and self-mastery.
is why I'm telling you not to be overly concerned about your salvation,
about hell and death. Universal salvation, my friends, is the basic
message of the NDE. Why do you think I keep harping on all of you to
learn the true glory of the afterlife by visiting http://near-death.com, written by Kevin Williams? Because
I know that the New Testament Bible, while giving "hope" of
an afterlife, is too primitive and incomplete for me to take seriously,
especially since I had two NDEs and have now read about 400 NDEs. Reading
NDEs can make you totally unafraid of death and your destination in
the afterlife. I do this because many of you will perish in the coming
Collapse. (Yes! First he tells people to unsubscribe, burn his own book,
and now is telling readers they will die soon!)
must rid yourself of your fear of death, as well as the concept that
death is wrong, bad, something to be mourned, etc. It's merely a transition,
and what follows is something, when experienced, so glorious, that you
will wonder why you hung on to life and feared death! If you are not
vicious and unascendent, or tied to the earth realm through grotesque
addictions and earthly desires, and came across my book or website,
chances are you will have nothing to worry about after death. You will
fit in quite well to whatever level of heaven matches the love and knowledge
and spiritual growth you attained while in your latest incarnation.
I do not need a savior. In fact I may make a "visit" to Hell
and save some lost souls before I become an Ancient of Days. Many DO
need a savior such as Jesus: one who finds himself in the outer darkness,
an endless void, or is subject to a temporary hellish realm. This
is where Jesus comes in! I am not a "Christian" in the strictest
sense of the word, but I've read MANY NDE's where Jesus appears as savior
immediately after death. In fact, he even appears to Biblically ignorant
children, Jews, Muslims and Buddhists, etc. So if you are Christian
and are in doubt about the reality of whether Jesus existed or not –
don't worry, he is alive and well, and visits many, many people after
most of you this will be the first time you've ever heard of Peak Oil.
Even though there are better experts than me, remember where you heard
of the idea! Don't say I didn't warn you! God placed me here at the
"end of the days" for many reasons, among them to attain to
spiritual, angelic ascension and enlightenment, and to warn people of
a truly historic end of the age, and civilization. As the old Chinese
curse goes, "May you live in interesting times."
may or may not agree with my conclusions. I'm telling you to keep an
open mind and do the research on the topic yourself. Like Y2K, it is
full of detailed data and can seem overwhelming at first, but the truth
is out there. You too can become a mini-expert on Peak Oil, and by doing
so, such as by memorizing familiar data, you can impress the naysayers,
those in denial, and convince skeptical family members. Remember the
issue of Y2K was a warm-up for many of you; it should have enabled you
to develop a thick skin. The Pollyannas are currently in psychological
control, and the spinmeisters will despise you. If you expect everyone
to love you, you will never be a "preacher" of Peak Oil! Expect
and relish persecution, knowing it is from those simply in the DARK.
with http://lifeaftertheoilcrash.net, and take the time to read the supplied
links. This is an excellent site; I've read it a few times, and read
many of the sources. It gives good arguments, lots of info and links
... the author may be likened to the Gary North of the Y2K scare. Ha
ha. He's a lawyer and has written a book and has appeared on Coast to
Then go to http://www.peakoil.net/
Then read the grandfather of
Peak Oil and population die-off sites: http://www.die-off.org
Chapter 18: Fulfillment of
Recent Prophecies; September 11 2001 "Trigger" for War on Terrorism (WWIII), 2001 Recession
Daniel’s Public Warnings since 1998 Fulfilled
You may wonder, concerning recent and past worldly affairs,
“Who could have foreseen all this recession and war (Afghanistan, Iraq) months or even years in advance? Who could have foreseen, well in advance, Bush becoming president, the 2001 economic recession and the dramatic political transformation that occurred later?”
Through the power of God, 21st century Daniel has foreseen all of this, and made it all public well in advance, since 1998.
If you were a doubting Thomas when first coming across this book, you had now better sit up and take notice; if your “test” in confirming the validity of a divine prophet is the accurate fulfillment of the future via public proclamations, then you must now concede … and even believe, even if it challenges everything you’ve ever believed, or contradicts your narrow Biblical interpretation of “divine reality."
Long-time readers since early 1998 will have noticed that the author successfully predicted the September/October crash in the stock market we experienced in the fall of 1998 and that we would hit Dow 10,000. I correctly called the correction of September/October 1999 (but off in intensity). That was before the spiritual awakening. Immediately after the awakening as reincarnate Daniel, almost everything based on divine visions has been coming true.
Specifically, these are the July 1999 prophetic dreams concerning the outcome of Y2K, and the March 2000 vision of the half-point interest rate rise and historic stock market crashes which occurred shortly after. The next vision occurred in summer 2000, when out-of body, in the Federal Reserve, and overheard Alan Greenspan's conversations with colleagues about engineering a 2001/2002 recession, or at least their fear that the previous, successive 6 rises in interest rates would do so. This was a future event at time of writing.
The most recent fulfillment of a projection made in March 2000 was a sideways or rising market through the summer, with crashes to occur before or during the elections; with the Dow losing nearly 800 points in the previous week, and crashing 379 points on Thursday, the 12th. That occurred in the fall of 2000.
Next, in March 2001 I publicly proclaimed the market would soon enter a major decline. Two weeks later the markets crashed big time with the Dow down to 10,400, (bottoming around 9,400) and the Nasdaq losing 60% of its value from the peak one year earlier.
The author had further proclaimed crises to occur through much of Bush’s term – publicly and long before he was elected president, particularly concerning the relationship to a future event in relation to the Middle East, especially with Iraq and Islamic extremists.
This ultimately came into fruition after the infamous “trigger” of 9-11, 2001 and continues as of the publication of this book in 2010. The next vision from God concerning a future event came in March 2000 whereupon I based an economic analysis on, which involved a near-term, disastrous market crash and half-point rise in interest rates, which both came to pass within the next couple of months
We are in the Middle East for the long run, and it’s largely related to a phenomenon called Peak Oil—the peak in global production of oil in the coming years. Global Peak Oil is not “myth” or “theory.” Rather, it is economic and physical reality, and no amount of prayer will refill the oil fields.
Essentially, we are “running out” of natural resources in general, especially with the economic industrialization of fast-growing India and China. Materialistic, consumerist modern society is soon to come crashing down, initiating a long – even permanent – economic depression.
I have since Day One on the Internet publicly proclaimed the following since 1998, and was willing to be stoned to death if it did not come to pass:
“We will have to experience a (several-year) period of severe economic tribulation that will fundamentally alter the world’s economic structure from which a new strategic paradigm will emerge: a full, total global war in the next twenty years that will be fought with maximum effort, nuclear weapons may be used, and the America/China/ India/Russian “problem” will be resolved ... but only after a culmination of unforeseeable events climax into World War Three in which either a new global power for the next long cycle is determined, or re-appointed (that is, the USA) ...”
This already has been coming into partial fulfillment. We have been through that economic tribulation, as the 1990’s Internet and tech bubble has long since burst as predicted, with a global recession throughout 2001. The federal budget is now back in the red.
Remember that all of the economic “forecasts” in the full version of this book were written previous to spring of 2001, well before the carnage we have now experienced. The recession began in the spring of 2001. Of course, that is now ancient history.
As this is written in 2010, the future holds even more economic carnage as the global economic debt pyramid comes crashing down, like a new Great Depression. It’s bound to happen eventually and is only a matter of time, and indeed may be imminent.
Indeed, we are facing an end to modern civilization itself in the not-too-distant future, should the vision of Starburst 2020 come to pass.
World War Three – however extreme such a concept sounded at the time (1998-2002, when first publicly proclaiming this), has since begun. The War on Terrorism, as initiated by President Bush as a result of the 9-11 terrorist attacks, is in fact World War Three.
It is not a fantasy I conjured up; it was all based on my 1997 Doomsday Clock vision, already documented. It is now a reality. As Dick Cheney said while vice-president,
“It is a war that will not end in our lifetime.”
It is not exactly what many expected, and it does NOT have to involve nuclear weapons, and it’s NOT necessarily related to Biblical prophecy, such as Revelation, since that book has already been fulfilled by 70 A.D.
The author was derided as a “doomsayer” for publicly discussing the prospect of imminent recession and global war during 1998-2001 when the world was prosperous and at peace, therefore some vindication should be in order.
I posted the following just a few days after 9-11, 2001 publicly and long before the Bush administration’s talk of “weapons of mass destruction” or prospect of invading Iraq:
“The War on Terrorism will be used as the pretext for the eventual assault on the Iraqi nation; Bush is preparing for this. Mark my words: Bush WILL invade Iraq, and complete what his father began.”
More than two years after this “prediction,” U.S. president Bush invaded Iraq, and the rest is history.
Furthermore, on February 17, 2001 – long before 9-11 and talk of weapons of mass destruction by the Bush Administration, Daniel said the following, publicly,
“Following in his father's footsteps, with a replay-cast of players such as Dick Cheney and Colin Powell, he has taken the predictable route of avenging and vindicating his father's shortfalls in completing the Gulf war started in 1991.” “Bush Jr. is here to complete it.”
Then came November 11, 2001. Then came May, 2003 where Bush invaded Iraq once and for all, fulfilling the said prophecy a year and a half previous. However, at the time I also gave “warning” that Baghdad was in danger of nuclear destruction in 2005. This did NOT come to pass, but the reader must understand that that was NOT a “written-in-stone” prediction. Just a possibility which was averted by the premature invasion of Iraq in May of 2003.
Now, publicly this author, on the Internet, DID "pass judgment in the name of the Lord upon Iraq" more than a year in advance of the May 2003 US invasion. This accurately came to pass. NO ONE else at the time was boldly "predicting" such an invasion. This author knew well in advance this would occur, and made it all public. In fact, in an earlier newsletter sent out on the Internet on Jan. 2001, more than 2 years PRIOR to the Iraq invasion, and long before the 9-11 "trigger" and Bush talk of weapons of mass destruction, I publicly told everyone Bush Jr. would invade Iraq once and for all, completing what his father had started in 1991.
The Starburst 2020 vision is also NOT “guaranteed” to occur as it too can be averted. It is only one of many possible future, multidimensional time lines.
this date for the history books: September 11, 2001, a date which will
live in infamy. ( wrote this a few days after 9-11, 2001)
now you have witnessed a historic event which changed the world. On
the above date one of the greatest landmarks of international finance,
American prestige and symbols of capitalist prosperity, the twin towers
of the World Trade Center in New York City, was completely destroyed
into a heap of rubble by intentional impact with the hijacking of two
airliners. Simultaneously, two other aircraft were hijacked, one impacting
and severely damaging the massive Pentagon in Washington D.C., and the
other crashing in Pennsylvania, the result of passengers foiling the
hijackers' plan of destruction. The initial estimates for the number
dead ranged from 10 to 20 thousand. (On that day, I sent a newsletter
to subscribers saying the official count would be closer to 3000. For
some time (months) the estimate was almost 5000. Events have proven
my estimate correct, for the official estimate is now less than 3000.)
the first time ever, the Federal Aviation Administration halted all
national flights for three days, creating a nightmare for travelers.
The situation placed in severe jeopardy the airline industry that was
already in a weak financial state. The result was a Federal bailout
of the industry. The entire tourism industry suffered dramatic setbacks
in the weeks following. The attackers achieved a crippling blow to the
American economy, already in recession. The WTC housed such powerhouses
as Morgan Stanley, China International Trust, Yamatane Securities America
and Farmers Union Control Exchange. The stock market was shut down for
days, and when it reopened, lost more than 20% in value over the following
couple of weeks, globally. The insurance costs were alone estimated
be in excess of $20 billion, and the total recovery costs of damage
about $100 billion.
international reaction was most impressive, especially in the U.S.,
where a tremendous wave of patriotism and resolve swept the country,
determined to avenge the perpetrators of this heinous crime. The obvious
suspects were, of course, Muslim fundamentalist extremists, led by people
like Osama bin Laden.
did it make you feel when first hearing about this tragedy? Shocked?
Angry? Sad? Flabbergasted? Or all of the above? Most were stunned in
disbelief for months, and still are. It did not faze the author in the
slightest, for I had been repeatedly warning (prophesying) about all
these events. And the fulfillment of these events has proven me correct.
after reading this book, you should smile in amusement to those who
say, "Who could have known this was coming?" because you are
reading the words of someone who did know, and repeatedly warned in
public, of all of the events taking place before your very eyes.
have repeatedly proclaimed the rough times ahead for President Bush.
I also publicly proclaimed a danger of assassination 8 to 12
months after (becoming president). Well, luckily he did escape this,
and he in fact was in danger at that time, for the terrorists were seeking
to take out the White House. He is indeed replaying his father's presidency,
as I said, for he was destined to be a crisis president involving a
war in the Middle East, during a major recession. Like his father, his
approval rating are through the roof, hitting 90% months following 9/11,
as was the case for Bush Sr. following the Gulf War.
could have foreseen all this recession and war happening months in advance?
Who could have foreseen him becoming president, and the dramatic transformation
that occurred later?" Through the power of God, Daniel has foreseen
all of this. If you were a doubting Thomas when first coming across
this book, you had now better sit up and take notice; if your "test"
in confirming the validity of a divine prophet is the accurate fulfillment
of the future via public proclamations, well, then listen.
author has further proclaimed additional crises occurring through much
of Bush's term, particularly concerning the relationship to a future,
very fearsome event in relation to the Middle East, especially Iraq
and Islamic extremists. I have, since Day One, publicly proclaimed the
following, and was willing to be stoned to death if it did not come
will have to experience a (several-year) period of severe economic tribulation
that will fundamentally alter the world's economic structure from which
a new strategic paradigm will emerge: a full, total global war in the
next twenty years that will be fought with maximum effort, nuclear weapons
will be used, and the America/China/India/Russian "problem"
will be resolved ... but only after a culmination of unforeseeable events
climax into World War Three in which either a new global power for the
next long cycle is determined, or re-appointed (that is, the USA) ..."
is now coming into fulfillment. We are now going through that economic
tribulation, as the bubble has long since burst, with a global recession
throughout 2001. The federal budget is now back in the red. While there
were signs of recovery by early 2002, you can be sure that more shakedown
is coming. Remember that all of the economic "forecasts" in
this book were written before spring of 2001, well before the carnage
we have now experienced. The recession began spring, 2001.
War Three – however extreme such a concept has sounded at the
time (1998-2002, when first publicly proclaiming this), has begun. The
War on Terrorism, as initiated by President Bush as a result of 9/11,
is in fact WWIII. It is not a fantasy I conjured up; it is now a reality.
It is a long war, and it is not exactly what many expected. It is not
the Cold War version of MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction).
19: Vision of the infamous Starburst 2020
you understand the power a true prophet possesses? A prophet can often
see and know the future, but often it is precisely because the
prophet speaks of that future event, therefore actually creating the
future itself, fulfilling the said prophecy.
(April 12, 2011 update insertion: Previously associated with this vision was a declaration that Daniel would be partially "responsible" for creating the outcome of this vision, or creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. This was not quite as accurate as previously worded. Remember that true prophecy is about issuing warning with intended or UN-intended, conscious or unconscious "hope" of actually altering the future by publicly declaring the said vision/prophecy. This was what the whole Y2K scare/warning was all about before the year 2000!
Nuclear war is avoidable!
The future is malleable and there are actually MANY multiple timelines. This was a highly probable vision when it was given in the year 2002 to this author. It is still a possibility, but the probability of this vision "coming true" may have receded since that time.)
I shall tell you of what "may" happen in the very distant future to the
inhabitants of the earth. But will this be written in stone? No, there
is a catch. We need light-workers and meditators to focus their attention on averting the nuclear portion of this prophecy. This is a warning prophecy and is not destined to happen. Yet how many will truly take 21st century Daniel's prophetic visions seriously? They certainly did not listen to the prophets of old times.
as for the Starburst 2020 vision I had in the spring of 2002, here it
I was spiritually transported into the distant (but yet written
in stone) future and witnessed firsthand, in person, what life was like
in the year A.D. 2092. Over the course of this night there were two
the first, I found myself on the outskirts of a large but long since
abandoned, early 21st century city. I was outside a run-down warehouse.
I was fully conscious that this was the distant future, and also aware
I would be returning to my 21st century body in only minutes, so I had
to find out when and where this was. So I walked into the warehouse.
There were people inside, about 25 or 30. Inside was about as large
as a small gymnasium, and along the walls were bunk beds, and all these
people milling about lived there.
The living conditions were horrible,
and the poverty and sparseness of their lifestyle like that of a homeless
shelter or jail; this was the “normal” standard of living for the
inhabitants of the earth at the time, at least in the U.S. They were
speaking a strange dialect of American English, but I could not fully
understand what they were saying to me. They knew I was a stranger,
just passing through, but I dared not tell them I was someone from the
economy had completely collapsed decades earlier. There was no real
government. They were not using money, but instead bartered for whatever
meager possessions they had. It resembled a Third World economy.
was very little left of the power grid, and electrical supply was very
minimal, about 5% of the capacity we currently have and use. The worldwide
division of labor had, many decades earlier, collapsed. The world's
population was only about 10 or 15% of what it is now, and all the large
cities were utterly abandoned, crumbling, deteriorated and unlivable;
a barren wasteland; everyone lived on the outskirts of the cities in
little communities like the one I visited.
The skyscrapers were just
standing there in the distance, aging and empty. Such was the poverty
that simple things like toilet paper, toothbrushes, deodorant, and batteries
were luxuries hard to come by. They at least seemed to have sufficient
food, but at indigent levels.
were very, very few if any cars on the street, and indeed the streets
were so dilapidated, they were practically unusable. The general infrastructure,
such as water and sewers and telecommunications, had all decayed and
was generally non-functioning.
The people walked or rode 70-year-old
bicycles. Books were extremely rare (they had only about five tattered
books in this particular community), as was paper in general. Outside
of their compound there were many old tractors and construction equipment,
but they were unusable and abandoned decades earlier. Besides, fuel
was next to nonexistent.
approached a middle-aged man and was conversing with him. I was amazed
at the conditions and the state of their lives and the world around
them, so I asked him,
God, sir, what happened here? How did this come to pass?”
looked at me strangely, as if I should already have known. He paused
for a moment, giving me a suspicious squint of the eye. I think he then
realized I was in fact from the past, and seemed to get grouchy, and
you know, it was YOU people (our present society), with all your greed
and militarism long ago who created this mess … thanks a lot!”
taken aback, I asked,
sir what year is this?”
He seemed annoyed at answering the question,
because it was something these people at that time did not want to talk
about and it made them bitter to bring up the subject. Then he knew
I came from the past. But I was insistent and persistent with my query
until he mumbled that the year was “72 years after Starburst” It
was their nickname for what happened in 2020. They had adopted a new
calendar system and had long since stopped using the Christian “A.D.”
So I had to ask him what the A.D. date was, and he told
me, but I also wondered, “Why did they call it 'Starburst?'” That
was what they called the event that ended civilization as we currently
live it. It was due to a few nuclear weapons detonated around 2020 over
a few key cities. It was not a full-scale exchange.
that I was transported back to the past.
will take only a handful of nuclear blasts. For instance, one over New York City, one
on Washington D.C., one on San Francisco or Seattle, one on London,
one on Tokyo. This would throw the world into a catastrophic depression
and long era of chaos. There would effectively be no United States government.
In the early years there would effectively be a martial law situation
with attempts to keep things in order. Society won't instantly grind
to a halt, but will relentlessly crumble over time, many years.
many will die of various means, such as famine and pestilence. The modern
division of labor is what supports the enormous amounts of food we currently
have, in order to feed the enormous population of 6.6 billion mouths
we currently have. Such a collapse would severely shrink the global
population. People will begin flooding out of the cities into country
villages. Large cities will become relics and monuments of the industrial
the same night as this vision I was transported to an even further time,
perhaps five centuries into the future. I was able to sail over
the country from about 100 miles up. Every city was uninhabited and
barren. It seemed as though the human population had become extinct.
Some of the (now) ancient skyscrapers were leaning on each other, with
advanced deterioration. I noticed that the sky was incredibly clear
and clean, and the sun was brilliantly intense.
Without parasitic humans
to poison and pollute the air and water and land, everything looked
vibrant; the grass was green and vibrant. The meadows that at one time
were huge croplands, looked beautiful. The water everywhere was pure
and clean. But there were no humans around to enjoy it … or spoil
Imprint the name of that event in your mind, because if you are living
a few decades from now, you "may" hear of the infamous … STARBURST