The business cycle of the economy for the U.S. since 1933.
Note that the average expansion cycle since 1945 averages 5 years.
The average since 1854 is 4 years. The longest recorded was 1961 to
1969, 8 1/2 years. We are near the end one of the most prosperous
cycles in U.S. history. The last recession ended in march 1991. As
of the present, we are in the ninth year of expansion. The probability
of recession beyond 2000 is extremely high,
and a virtual certainty. (Independent of Y2K!)
BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES -periods of economic expansion-
DURATION IN MONTHS:
March 1933 to May 1937 =50 months
June 1938 to February 1945 =80 months
October 1945 to November 1948 =37 months
October 1949 to July 1953 =45 months
May 1954 to August 1957 =39 months
April 1958 to April 1960 =28 months
February 1961 to December 1969 =106 months
November 1970 to November 1973 =36 months
March 1975 to January 1980 =58 months
July 1980 to July 1981 =12 months
November 1982 to July 1990 =92 months
March 1991 to present (March 2000) =117months and counting....
(the economy still has some steam left--
we are now on the verge of a new US and
global recession. It's now official--the longest
peacetime expansion in US history.)
Average, all cycles:
1945-1991 (9 cycles)11 months(contractions) 50 months(expansions)
Average, peacetime cycles
1945-1991 (7 cycles)11 months(contraction) 43 months(expansions)
Note: The business cycle of the 1990's can be divided into two periods:
The first 4-year period from 1990-1994 was characterized by recession and high unemployment.(even though it technically ended in 1991.) The 4-year period from 1994-1998 was one of expansion. The period from 1998-2002 will probably be one of contraction. Based on the 4-year cycle , we can expect a contractionary period very soon.
To see how the sunspot cycle correlates with recessions, go to: Sunspot / Recession Page
Medium-term chart showing regularity of business cycles: periods of growth
and contraction.
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